GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for January 31, 2012

 

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After break of the long-term bearish channel marked in blue, the pair is trending up inside the narrow bullish channel marked in brown.

Yesterday we expected formation of a Head & Shoulders reversal pattern which became confirmed on closure below 1.5650 and the lower limit of the channel which didn't happen, so we are out of the market.

On the other side, the pair managed to make a higher high today closing above 1.5740 which opened the way for the pair to test 1.5775, which is the nearest resistance level for the pair.

This resistance 1.5775 is a key-level for GBP/USD movement today and this week as its break will extend the bullish journey towards 1.5870.

Bearish Price action towards it, brings the pair back to retest the lower limit of the channel at 1.5730 which would be liable to be broken this time.

SL for any mentioned scenario should be break of the high/low we are couning on.

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EUR/JPY Weekly Technical Levels - January 30 - February 3, 2012.

Weekly Technical Levels:

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Tip (s):

R3 and S3 are good indication of the maximum range for extremely volatile days but can be exceeded occasionally.
Pivot lines work well in sideways markets as prices will most likely range between the R1 and S1 line.
In a strong trend, price will lower through a pivot point line and keep going.
If there is significant news to influence on the market, price may go straight through R1 or S1 and reach even R2 & R3 or S2 & S3.

Time Frame: H1.

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Drag your Fibonacci retracement levels from the lower to the higher levels of the last week (It has 120 candles, as you know each candle is formed in 1 hour on H1 chart, then: (120 candles * 1 hour) / 24 hours = 5 days from the 23^rd of January to the 27^h of January, 2012.) in order to determine low and high price.
Average = (Higher - Lower) / 2
Average = 100.65

• Range was: 309 pips.
• The value of 50% Fibonacci retracement levels is: 100.65.
• 104.00 a strong resistance will be formed.
• 98.15 a strong support will be formed.
• Volatility is 3110.23. 
• It should be noted that the price is still trapped between 101.70 and 99.10, as well as that the weekly pivot point is between 61.8% of Fibonacci retracement levels and 50%.

Observation (s):

• If the strength of the trend for the pair is an uptrend, then the strength of the currency is as follows: EUR is an uptrend and JPY is a downtrend.
• Most of traders use the Fibonacci retracement to determine accurate psychology level of support and resistance.
• Volatility Formulas: Variation = Average * (Higher - Lower).
  

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GBP/USD: Intraday Technical Analysis for January 27, 2012.

Pivot Point: 1.5695.

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GBP/USD:

• Resistance: 1.575. (Sell below this level).
• Support: 1.55. (Buy above this level).
  

Trading Recommendations:

According to the previous events, the price is still located between levels1.5750 and 1.55.

• BUY-deals are to be made higher than the 1.55 level with targets at levels 1.5525 and 1.5675.
• The descending movement will probably take place lower than the 1.575 level with the first targets at levels 1.5653, 1.559 and 1.5465.

Overview:

It should be noted that the market revealed the signs of instability and the trend movement was controversial as it took place in a narrow sideways channel. Concerning the previous events, the price is still between the levels 1.5750 and 1.5400, so it is recommended to be careful in this area. Therefore, it is necessary to wait till the sideways channel is passed through. Then, the market will probably show the signs of a bullish trend. In other words, BUY-deals are recommended higher than the 1.5400 level (Support 3: 1.5469) with its first target at level 1.55. From this point the pair is likely to begin the ascending movement to the point 1.56 and later to 1.5675. However, if the pair is not to pass through the level 1.5750, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity lower than the strong resistance level 1.5750. In this regard, it is recommended to make SELL-deals lower than the 1.5750 level with the first target of 1.56. It is possible that the pair will turn to downward movement continuing the development of the bearish trend to the level 1.555.
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Intraday Technical levels (the 27^th of January, 2012):

R3:1.5804
R2:1.5769
R1:1.5730
PP:1.5695
S1:1.5656
S2:1.5621
S3:1.5582

Definition (s):

Range I – A long-term mean reversion strategy that looks to go against strong divergence from the pair’s average value. It will typically hold trades for an extended period of time and is one of the slower moving trading strategies.
Range II– Like Breakout 2, uses sentiment as a filter for its trades. It will use a simple oscillator range trading strategy but only take the trading signals if SSI is not at extremes. It is fairly short-term in nature and will tend to trade very little during times of strong trending moves. It is likewise one of the most volatility-sensitive trading systems and will tend to do poorly during times of sharp currency moves.

Observation (s):

Please check out the market volatility before investing, because the sight price may have already been reached and scenarios become invalidate.
Stop Loss should NEVER exceed your maximum exposure amounts.

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USD/CAD Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for January 26, 2012.

Pivot Point: 1.0073.

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Overview:

The market will continue showing strength by following to the level of 0.9960 (11% of Fibonacci retracement levels). Therefore, the USD/CAD resistance was broken and turned into support a month ago (on the 30th of October, 2011), the pair has already formed a strong support at the level of 0.9960. So the market indicates a bullish opportunity at level of 0.9960 with the first objective of 1.0130 and continues towards 1.02. However, if the trend does not manage to break through and close above the level of 1.02, then it will be a downside momentum, that is rather convincing and the structure of the downfall looks non-corrective, for that the market will indicate a bearish opportunity at 1.0200, hence it will be a good sign to sell at this level in order to continue downward pace towards 1.0010 on H4.

Trading Recommendations:

According to previous events, the price is still trapped between 1.0020 and 1.0270.

• Buy above 0.9960 with target at 1.0133 then 1.0200.
• Below 1.0200, look for further downside pace with a target of 1.0010.

Technical Levels:

R3:1.0238
R2:1.0193
R1:1.0118
PP:1.0073
S1:0.9998
S2:0.9953
S3:0.9878

Observation (s):

Please check out the market volatility before investing, because the sight price may have already been reached and scenarios become invalidate.

Key level at 0.9960.

History will probably repeat itself at this level again.

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GBP/USD Wave Analysis for January 25, 2012

Wave marking analysis:
The breakdown of the level 1.5600 by the GBP/USD pair confirmed yesterday the formation of the 5-wave structure on ascending part of the trend initiated on January 13. Therefore, the current uprising correction is expected to be complicated and continuous. The first targets for the whole ascending part of the trend of the supposed wave A are located near the level 1.5675. If that is true, then having reached the mentioned target level and considering the MACD decisive divergence it will be possible to expect the decline in prices within the prospective wave B.
 

Targets for the variant with the uprising wave A:
1,5619 – 88.6% according to Fibonacci
1,5675 – 161.8% according to Fibonacci

Targets for the variant with the wave B:
1,5566 – 76.4% according to Fibonacci
1,5503 – 61.8% according to Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:
With GBP deals we observed the formation of the ascending corrective part of the trend, probably within the wave A, inside of which the 5-wave structure was formed. The MACD divergence points at possible small decrease in prices and can coincide right with the completion of the wave A. If that proves to be true, then the wave B is likely to form and we can expect the decrease in prices to the levels 1.5566 and 1.5503. It is possible that the developing wave A will raise the pair to the level 1.5619 which is equal to 88.6% according to Fibonacci and further to the level 1.5675 corresponding to 161. 8% of Fibonacci.

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AUD/USD Wave Analysis for January 24, 2012

The AUD/USD pair is forming the impulse wave C of the 5th order from 1. 0231-level. It includes the sub-wave C of the 4th order from 1. 0231, which in turn has its own sub-wave C of the 3rd order coming from 1. 0370. From the level of 1. 0573 the corrective 4th sub-wave is forming. The targets of this wave are defined according to the correction grid 1.0370-1.0573. The correction grid also provides the support levels 1.0145-1.0573.

Support levels:
- 1.0471 = 50%
- 1.0448 = 61.8%
- 1.0410 = 38.2%
If the pair continues the upward movement with the breakdown at level 1.0573 then the nearest resistance levels will provide expansion grids 1.0145-1.0377-1.0231, 1.0231-1.0449-1.0354, 1.0354-1.0436-1.0370.

Resistance levels:
- 1.0572 = 100% expansion
- 1.0585 = 261.8% expansion
- 1.0606 = 161.8% expansion

The direction of deals: BUY-deals are recommended as long as the pair keeps the position higher than 1.0458.
 

The wave levels (marking):
1st order (the lowest) – dotted line
2nd, 3rd order and higher - line weight 1, 2 etc.
The same is for Fibonacci grids.

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EUR/USD Intraday Technical Analysis & Trading Recommendations January 23, 2012

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On the daily chart, the bullish breakout of the mid-term bearish channel is obvious with quite a long bullish candlestick.
Now the pair is testing 61.8% Fibonacci level after bearish rejection, which appeared at 1.2970 with gap to the downside at the opening this week.
Stabilization below 61.8% Fibonacci level gives the confirmation to resume the downside movement. However, if the pair fails to do so, this may push the pair up again to retest 1.2970.
Thus we can say that EUR/USD is moving in the mid-term bearish direction and short-term bullish direction after breakout of the mentioned channel.

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Last Thursday, EUR/USD managed to break and close above the consolidation range upper limit at 1.2880.
EUR/USD managed to break and close above the upper limit of the long-term bearish channel established in last October. However, this isn't considered a valid bullish entry as the pair has a considerable resistance area at 1.2890-1.2970, which is a 61.8% Fibonacci level, and also the previous broken daily low.
Last Friday, the pair was testing the upper limit of the SUPPLY zone at 1.2970 which held the price below acting as intraday resistance.
Also Bearish price action towards this resistance area 1.2970 is fairly strong manifested in the daily bearish engulfing candlestick.
However, its break will open the way directly to 1.3075 which, if broken too, will go up to 1.3190, these moves, if happen, can be profitable for intraday traders.
The current midterm bearish direction and trend of the pair, besides the bearish WEEKLY closure last week, enhances the bearish side of the market more than the bullish one.
It's important to mention that the pair has a good support around 1.2600-1.2585, which is a significant previous weekly low.

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GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis &Trade Recommendations for January 20, 2012

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Last Friday GBP/USD declined rapidly towards 1.5233 to test the lower limit of the bearish channel marked on the chart.
Although it recorded a new low at the previously mentioned price level of 1.5233, it couldn't stabilize below 1.5278 showing massive bullish reaction towards the lower limit of the channel.
This week we mentioned that we have an inverted 'Head & Shoulders' reversal pattern, as we had obvious closure above the neckline 1.5400 targeting to the upper limit of the channel.
Yesterday, we suggested buying GBP/USD at 1.5380 which is the retest of the neck-line but unfortunately the pair didn't reach that price before its upside movement.
It's important to note that the pair has a good resistance "Supply" zone between 1.5480-1.5540 which is also the upper limit of the marked bearish channel.
The pair has visited 1.5480 and no bearish reaction is noticed till now so price action towards 1.5540 should be watched for a confirmation to take a short position.

Based on the previous analysis:

Price action around 1.5540 should be monitored for the expected bearish power to enter the market.
SL should be daily closure above 1.5480 & TP should be located at 1.5500, 1.5430 and 1.5380 with a possibility to extend our TP down to 1.5280.

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Long-Term Classic Technical Analysis of USD/CHF (Bearish View) - January 19, 2012

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Since February 2011, the USD/CHF pair hasn't touched these price levels.
The current levels of price between 0.9400-0.9780 are considered as a strong resistance area, as 50% Fibonacci level of the whole swing down to 1.1700-0.7050 and previous multiple tops are located there.
Now we see weakness of the bullish move and no visible higher maximums and lows indicating possible decline from these levels of resistance.
Daily closure below 0.9400-0.9380 which is 50% Fibonacci level gives confirmation for a soon decline targeting at 0.8585 in the long-term.
Yesterday we had a daily closure below 0.9400 at 0.9393 which is considered a short entry signal.

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The mentioned weakness of the bulls is manifested on this H4 chart as the pair began to enter a period of consolidation without enough steam to push higher.
The pair managed to break the lower limit of the bullish channel marked in blue, which is considered the 1st support line facing the pair now acting as resistance on retest.
The pair is now forming a "Double Top" reversal pattern with neck-line at 0.9400 which is confirmed now as the pair managed to closes below its neckline targeting 0.9250 initially.
Selling was recommended at the daily closure below 0.9400 or now this trade can be joined at the retest of the broken lower limit of the channel at 0.9444, that is considered good with TP at 0.9400, 0.9350, 0.9305 and then 0.9250.
SL should be H4 closure above 0.9530.

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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 18, 2012

AUD/USD broke above 1.0386 to show wave C of medium term uptrend (this one is colored magenta in the chart, and started from 1.0231). As this wave progresses the targets above may be Fibonacci expansions off A-B waves 1.0145-1.0377-1.0231, and also subwaves A and B (they're colored red in the chart) 1.0231-1.0449-1.0354.

If the price breaks above 1.0449 we'll have full grown subwave C (from 1.0354) that is part of wave C of larger degree (from 1.0231).

The immediate resistances:

- 1.0463 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0489 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0572 = OP
- 1.0606 = expanded objective point (XOP)

However if corrective subwave B continues (from 1.0449), we'll calculate immediate supports using Fibonacci retracements from 1.0145-1.0449, 1.0231-1.0449.
Immediate supports:

- 1.0366 = .382 retracement
- 1.0340-33 = confluence area of .50 ret and .382 ret
- 1.0314 = .618 ret
- 1.0297 = .50 ret
- 1.0261 = .618 ret

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Overbought/Oversold

The larger wave is still going up, so it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (25-35 pips below the current prices).

Read more on how to trade with Fibonacci levels.

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GBP/USD: Intraday Technical Analysis for January 17, 2012.

Pivot Point: 1.5317.

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GBP/USD:

• Resistance: 1.54.
• Breakout above 1.5420 (Buy above this level).
   
• Support: 1.5245.
• Breakout below 1.5225. (Sell below this level).

Trading Recommendations:

According to previous events, the price is still trapped between 1.523 and 1.540.

• Buy above 1.5420 with target at 1.55, then 1.5575.
• Below 1.5225 look for further downside with the first target of 1.5150, 1.51.

Overview:

It should be noted that the market was not stable and the trend was not also clear (it was in a tight sideways range), according to previous events, the price is still trapped between 1.523 and 1.54, so it is wise to be careful in this area. Therefore the first step is to wait for a period of tight sideways range market before breakouts. Then, it is probable that the market will show the signs of a bullish trend. In other words, it will be a good sign to buy above 1.542 (Support 1: 1.5245) with the first target of 1.55 and it'll climb towards 1.545, then to 1.56. However, if the pair does not manage to break through 1.5615, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below 1.5615 and the level will act as a strong resistance, for that it will be good to sell below 1.56 with the first target of 1.5525 and it will call for downtrend in order to continue bearish trend towards 1.5250. It also should be noted that if there is a breakout at the level of 1.5225, then the trend will continue to be bearish to 1.51.

Intraday Technical levels (the 17^th of January, 2012):

R3:1.5431
R2:1.5393
R1:1.5355
PP:1.5317
S1:1.5279
S2:1.5241
S3:1.5203

Definition (s):

Range I – A long-term mean reversion strategy that looks to go against strong divergence from the pair’s average value. It will typically hold trades for an extended period of time and is one of the slower moving trading strategies.
Range II– Like Breakout 2, uses sentiment as a filter for its trades. It will use a simple oscillator range trading strategy but only take the trading signals if SSI is not at extremes. It is fairly short-term in nature and will tend to trade very little during times of strong trending moves. It is likewise one of the most volatility-sensitive trading systems and will tend to do poorly during times of sharp currency moves.

Observation (s):

Please check out the market volatility before investing, because the sight price may have already been reached and scenarios become invalidate.
Stop Loss should NEVER exceed your maximum exposure amounts.

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AUD/USD Wave Analysis for January 16, 2012

The AUD/USD pair is moving in the C wave of the 4th order from 1.0377. It includes sub-waves A, B and C of the 2nd order. C goes from 1.0377. The wave also includes its sub-waves A and B of the 1st order, C goes from 1.0333. Lower targets provide correction grids of 1.0377-1.0145, expansion 1.0386-1.0145-1.0377, 1.0377-1.0289-1.0367, 1.0367-1.0231-1.0333.

Support levels:


- 1.0249 = 61.8% expansion
- 1.0228-25 = accumulation of levels – 61.8% and 161.8% expansion
- 1.0197-95 = accumulation of levels - 100% expansion and 78.6% correction.


If the pair is to continue the upward movement, the nearest resistance levels will provide expansion grids 1.0044-1.0386-1.0145, 1.0145-1.0377-1.0231.
Resistance levels:
- 1.0374 = 61.8% expansion
- 1.0463 = 100% expansion

Direction of SELL-deals up to 1.0333

Wave levels (marking):

1st order (the lowest) – dotted line
2nd, 3rd order and higher – line weight 1, 2 etc.

The same is for Fibonacci grids.

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EUR/USD Intraday Technical Analysis & Trade Recommendation January 13, 2012

EUR/USD is having a strong downtrend these days inside the marked blue bearish channel.

Last Monday Support level 1.2666 held the price above prevented further decline of the pair and pushed the pair up to 1.2810.

On Wednesday, we witnessed another decline to visit support level 1.2666 which showed bullish presence again.

Yesterday we expected a double buttom reversal pattern formation with low at 1.2666 and neckline at 1.2810 which was confirmed with closure above the neckline, targetting 1.2945.

Area between 1.2920 - 1.2945 is a strong resistance which is the upper limit of the bearish channel, Fibonacci level 61.8% & the target of the possible double buttom.

In order to benefit from the expected double buttom level, We bought around 1.2730 with final TP at 1.2945 as suggested yesterday, not forgetting profits taken each 70 pips to avoid price reversal.

Based on the previous analysis

For those who took the original trade yesterday early we are waiting for the final TP at 1.2945, for those who didn't, buying at retest of the neckline at 1.2810-1.2830 is considered good

The final TP will be at 1.2945 with SL break of the low at 1.2666.

In order to follow the main downtrend, SELLING around 1.2929-1.2945 will be good with TP at 1.2855, 1.2805, 1.2745 then 1.2670 with SL daily closure above 1.2950.

 

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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 12, 2012

GBP/JPY is still developing impulse wave C of medium term downtrend (colored light green in the chart) that started from 122.71, and inside this wave on smaller scale there are three subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), and impulse subwave C is developing from 119.05. This wave has been confirmed as it broke below the top of wave A - 118.20.

The immediate supports are Fibonacci expansions off 122.71-118.20-119.05, 119.05-117.66-117.83.

Supports:

- 116.95 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 116.44 = objective point (OP)
- 116.26 = COP
- 115.58 = expanded objective point (XOP)

If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down from 119.05 - this wave is not developed yet, so no resistances are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving down, so it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (15-25 pips above the current prices).

Read more on how to trade with Fibonacci levels.

 

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EUR/USD Intraday Technical analysis 2012-01-11

The spot rate is currently testing the intermediate resistance of its medium term bearish channel in 1.2810 suggesting a decline. However a break of these levels would allow it to reach the upper limit of its channel to 1.3010.

According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the spot rate will have broken its resistance in 1.2810 with a 1st objective of 1.2870, then 1.2890. A break in 1.2790 would invalidate this scenario.

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GOLD Intraday Technical analysis 2012-01-10

The gold is currently testing the upper limit of its medium term bearish channel in 1625 and seems to initiate a decline. However a break of these levels would free up significant potential and initiate a bullish trend.

According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the gold will have broken its resistance in 1625 with a 1st objective of 1635, then 1640. A break in 1623 would invalidate this scenario.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/47783/?x=OUE

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GOLD Intraday Technical analysis 2012-01-09

The gold is currently testing the upper limit of its medium term bearish channel in 1627 and seems to initiate a decline. However a break of these levels would free up significant potential and initiate a bullish trend.

According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the gold will have broken its resistance in 1627 with a 1st objective of 1640, then 1645. A break in 1625 would invalidate this scenario.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/47667/?x=OUE

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EUR/USD Intraday Technical Analysis & Trade Recommendation January 9, 2012

EUR/USD is having a downtrend making lower highs & lows inside the marked bearish channel.

Today, After recording a low at 1.2666 the pair shows some bullish power presented in the 4H hammer candlestick & the following bullish candlesticks.

This indicates retracement and profit taking. However, we focus on short opportunities in this downtrend.

The pair has a strong resistance level at 1.2860 which is 50% Fibonacci level of the swing between 1.3080-1.2666, last week's low & Last January's low also.

So this gives a good short entry at 1.2860 with TP at with TP at 1.2805, 1.2757, 1.2705 & 1.2630.

SL should be 4H closure above 1.2965.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/47721/?x=OUE

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GOLD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-01-06

Gold is currently testing the upper limit of its medium term bearish channel at 1,629 and seems to start declining. However, a break through these levels will free up significant potential and initiate a bullish trend.
According to previous events, the market will indicate a bullish opportunity as soon as gold price has broken its resistance at 1,629 with the 1st objective of 1,640, then of 1,645. A break of 1,627 will invalidate this scenario.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/47563/?x=OUE

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AUD/USD Intraday Technical Analysis & Trade Recommendations for January 5, 2012

Technical analysis

Mohamed Samy

AUD/USD currency pair has a good supply zone extending between 1.0311 - 1.0438 marked on the chart.

Also there's the upper limit of the long-term bearish channel situated near this supply zone.

Today we see bearish reaction towards this zone which gives confirmation of the bearish view.

On the 4H chart, we see that the pair formed a small double top pattern at our mentioned zone.

During the last 4H candlestick, AUD/USD managed to confirm  the reversal pattern with 4H closure below 1.0311.

This gives a short opportunity at 1.0311 with SL daily closure above 1.0438.

TP should be at 1.0250, 1.0180 then 1.0080 then may extend down to 1.0000.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/47515/?x=OUE

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GOLD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-01-04

Technical analysis

Albert Fitoussi

The gold is currently testing the upper limit of its medium term bearish channel at 1609 and seems to start a decline. However, breaking through these levels will free significant potential and initiate a bullish trend.
According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the gold will have broken its resistance at 1609 with the 1st target at 1620, then at 1625. A break at 1607 will cancel such scenario.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/47355/?x=OUE

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Wave Analysis of EUR/USD for January 3, 2012

Wave analysis

Alexander Dneprovskiy

Analysis of the wave marking:
Due to the holidays season yesterday’s session EUR/USD overall wave stance did not alter significantly. Thus the price moved in a very narrow price range above the rate of the 29th figure. Meanwhile the formed wave structure still allows for a possible development of the marked prolonged upside correction as well as a chance for the pair to renew the decline to the next target rate for the 3rd wave (in the 5th) which corresponds to the mark of 1.2760-1.2750. At the same time we should pay attention to that if this target is hit in the nearest future the inner wave marking of the 5th wave in the 3rd would probably need to be slightly adjusted.

The targets of the correctional movement:
1.3023 – 161.8% Fibo
1.3080 – 127.2% Fibo

The targets for the 3rd wave in the 5th:
1.2858 – 261.8% Fibo

General recommendations:
On Tuesday the correction continues amid the decline over the last two days of 2011.
The fact that the price is still within the declining range points at the continuation of the downfalling trends’ part. The current situation is that the inner wave marking of the assumed third wave in the fifth is ambiguous and hardly possible. That is why uncertainty is high regarding not only the direction of the trend but the wave marking of this movement.
The MACD divergence indicates a possible rebound from the current levels in the direction of new lows and in particular to 1.2858, which corresponds to 261.8% Fibo/ on the other hand, the exit from a narrower declining range can complicate the current correction in the direction to 1.3080, that corresponds to 127.2% Fibo.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/47273/?x=OUE

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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 2, 2012

Wave analysis

Roman Molodiashin

GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave C (colored light green in the chart) from 122.71. This wave is confirmed since the price broke below 119.31 (top of wave A). Within this wave we have four subwaves (colored red in the chart), and potential subwave 4 is developing from 119.21. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 122.71-119.21, 122.21-119.21.

Resistances:

- 120.36 = .382 retracement
- 120.55 = .382 ret
- 120.71 = .50 ret
- 120.96 = .50 ret
- 121.06 = .618 ret

If the price breaks below 119.21, subwave 5 will continue. The targets of the downmove will be Fibonacci expansions off 127.25-119.31-122.71, 122.71-121.54-122.21, 122.21-119.21-119.99.

Supports:

- 118.14 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 117.80 = COP
- 116.99 = objective point (OP)

Overbought/Oversold

Assuming that the major wave is now moving down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (10-15 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (30-40 pips above the current prices), watch for entries short at the indicated supports.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/47155/?x=OUE

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