AUD/USD Elliott Wave Count for April 16, 2012

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AUD/USD Elliott Wave
Last week the AUD/USD has finished 1 wave (coloured blue) in the point 1.0450. During the Friday's trading day we could observe the development of the 2 wave (coloured blue). We could observe the descending movement in the Europe and New York session price broke 50 EMA support and pushed to 1.0360 level. During the early Asian session the AUD/USD pair continued the bearish mood and we could see price at the 1.0310 level. We can consider this move as the end of 2 wave (coloured blue). Presently we can observe the beginning of the 3 wave (coloured blue). In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (1.0224-1.0450-1.0310); the First Take Profit at 1.0623 (138.2% of wave 1) and Second Take Profit at 1.0676 (161.8% of wave 1). For Stop Loss we can use the invalidation point at 1.0224. Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the U.S Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m, Empire State Manufacturing Index, TIC Long-Term Purchases, Business Inventories m/m and FOMC Member Pianalto Speaks that can affect the rate of the pair
Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 1.0295 (S2) 1.0332 (S1) 1.0355 (PP) 1.0392 (R1) 1.0429 (R2) 1.0452 (R3) 1.0489
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules, today the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 1.0350 with Stop Loss at 1.0224, Take Profit 1 at 1.0623 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0676 are recommended.