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Wednesday, September 5, 2012

GOLD Wave Analysis for September 5,2012



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GOLD Elliott Wave
Yesterday gold was trading in a sideways move, developing final 5 wave (coloured blue) of the bigger impulsive (3) wave (coloured green). During the Asian and European sessions we could observe a descending movement towards the 1688.85 level. Therefore, during the early New York session this commodity found support at 1687.35 and the price reached a new high at 1698.18. We can consider this move as the end of the impulsive (3) wave (coloured green) and we are expecting to see the price around 1655.05 soon. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 4 should retrace 38.2% of the wave 3, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci retracement (1547.61-1698.18), with Take Profit at 1655.05 (38.2% of wave 3). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation at 1704.80 level as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor the U.S. Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q and Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1676.3 (S2) 1681.9 (S1) 1690.3 (PP) 1695.9 (R1) 1704.3 (R2) 1709.9 (R3) 1718.3
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at level 1685.95 with Stop Loss 1704.80 and Take Profit at 1655.05 are recommended.
Nicola Delic is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

Thursday, August 30, 2012

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-08-30



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The spot rate has been evolving between the upper limit of its medium term bearish channel at 1.2570 and the lower limit of this one at 1.2510 for three days. It approaches now the upper limit of its channel suggesting a decline. However, a break of these levels will free a large potential and initiate a violent bullish channel.
Technical indicators provide sell signals and until the resistance is not broken, the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement.
As the spot rate approaches the upper limit of its channel then we recommend 2 scenarios: the first one is the hypothesis of a decline where we suggest selling on the level of 1.2570 with the 1st objective at 1.2510 and then at 1.2490. A breakthrough of 1.2590 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is a break of its resistance where we advise a “buy stop” which means buying the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its resistance of 1.2570 with the 1st objective at 1.2630 and then at 1.2650. A breakthrough of 1.2550 will invalidate this scenario.
Albert Fitoussi is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

Tuesday, August 28, 2012

GBP/USD Support and Resistance for Tuesday, 28 August, 2012



Monday, 27 August, was a regular day for the British pound. It was trading in the sideways price channel in the range of 1.5793-1.5818 and has not expressed any distinct dynamics in the regard of the further direction.
At the end of the day, the prices were placed in the areas of VAL – 1.5997 and VAH – 1.5814. The point of control POC was formed in the 1.5808.
Forecast for Today:
During today’s Asian session the British pound dropped sharply against the US dollar and then restored its positions.
In case of downtrend resumption, the first resistance level will be POC area from 22 August – 1.5797. From that level the uptrend will continue from VAL of 24 August – 1.5823 and then to the POC level of that day – 1.5861 and after that towards VAH of 24 August – 1.5897.
The most conservative longs will be up to VAL of 16 May – 1.5906.
In case the downturn continues, the first support level will be in the POC area of 21 August – 1.5760. After that the decline will extend towards POC of 16 August – 1.5737 and then to POC of 20 August – 1.5707.
The most conservative shorts will be up to POC of 14 August – 1.5690.


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Description
POC (Point of Control) – orange horizontal line on the chart.
VAL – violet horizontal line on the chart, always below POC.
VAH – violet horizontal line on the chart, always above POC.

Thursday, August 23, 2012

EUR/USD Strong Support 1. 2410 - For August 23, 2012 (Daily Strategy)



The euro benefited from the data that was published by the Federal Reserve, which made the impression that many of the members are more than willing to intervene and ease monetary policy if the U.S. economy does not recover soon. This was bad for the dollar and the euro which benefited as the result and reached the maximum of July 4 at 1.2570.
At the technical level, we note that secondary downtrend line is intact and there may be a correction of the pair to the support of 1.2410. We can visualize both of levels on the chart. Given that the pair is in a bullish mood, we recommend buying with targets 1.2570 and above 1.2650. The stop loss will place it below the support of 1.2410.



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If you need a personal consultation, contact me via e-mail: gerardo.porras@analytics.instaforex.com
If you like my technical analysis, please vote for me, in the portal MT5.com, please login and then vote for me. Thanks.
Gerardo Porras is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

Wednesday, August 22, 2012

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels for August 22, 2012



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Today’s Technical Level:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.2534.
Strong Resistance: 1.2528.
Original Resistance: 1.2516.
Inner Sell Area: 1.2504.
Target Inner Area: 1.2474.
Inner Buy Area: 1.2444.
Original Support: 1.2432.
Strong Support: 1.2420.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.2412.
Description:
Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.2432 and 1.2516 and is accompanied by strong support at 1.2420 and by 1.2528 as strong resistance.
If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below 1.2412 level today, this will indicate a considerable bearish strength, while if EUR/USD manages to break out and close above 1.2534 level, this will denote a high bullish strength. Alternatively, for advance traders, you can trade in a way to open BUY position at the level of 1.2444 and SELL position at 1.2504; in this case both targets should be located at the level of 1.2474.



Best regards,
Arief Makmur
Official Analyst of InstaForex Companies Group
InstaForex Companies Group
http://instaforex.com
Email : Arief.ifx.jakarta@gmail.com
Arief Makmur is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

Tuesday, August 21, 2012

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-08-21



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As we predicted yesterday, the spot rate bounced off to the intermediate support of its medium term bullish channel at 1.5680 and approaches now the upper limit of this one at 1.5770 suggesting a decline. However, a break of these levels will free a large potential and initiate a more violent bullish trend.
Technical indicators provide buy signals but are approaching overbuy zone supporting a decline and until the resistance is not broken, the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement. Furthermore, the spot rate is breaking the superior band supporting the hypothesis of a violent movement to the upper limit of its channel.
The spot rate tests its resistance that is why we recommend 2 scenarios: the first one is the hypothesis of a decline where we suggest a sell at the level of 1.5770 with the 1st objective at 1.5710 and then at 1.5690. A breakthrough 1.5790 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is the hypothesis of a break of its resistance where we recommend a “buy stop”. We advised to buy the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its resistance of 1.5770 with the 1st objective at 1.5830 and then at 1.5850. A breakthrough 1.5750 will invalidate this scenario.
Albert Fitoussi is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.                                  

Monday, August 20, 2012

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels for August 20, 2012



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TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2390.
Strong Resistance: 1.2383.
Original Resistance: 1.2371.
Inner Sell Area: 1.2359.
Target Inner Area: 1.2330.
Inner Buy Area: 1.2301.
Original Support: 1.2289.
Strong Support: 1.2277.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.2270.

DESCRIPTION:

Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.2289 and 1.2371 and is accompanied by strong support at 1.2277 and by 1.2383 as strong resistance.
If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below a 1.2270-level today, then this will indicate considerable bearish strength, while if EUR/USD manages to break out and close above a 1.2390-level, then this will denote high bullish strength. Alternatively for advance traders, you can trade in a way to open a BUY position at the level of 1.2301 and at 1.2359 – a SELL position, in this case both targets should be located at the level of 1.2330.

Best regards,
Arief Makmur is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

Friday, August 17, 2012

Why VIX Is So Low, And What Comes Next?



Tyler Durden's picture




VIX is nothing more than the market's implied 'factor' that makes the supply-demand of options prices fit with model-based parameters. In simple terms it measures the market's expectations for volatility (up or down moves - not just down) going forward. Empirically it has a relationship with realized volatility - how much the market actually moved up or down relative to what VIX expected - and professionals will use various 'scalping' techniques to lock in day-to-day gains from the difference between the market's actual movement and what options prices expected. To wit: the current expectations of central bank action, just as it did in 11/2011 (global CB action) and 1/2012 (LTRO1), has caused a slow steady leak higher in stocks which crushes realized volatility - currently at record lows. This in turn drags implied vol lower as the 'scalpers' sell vol to capture the difference. With September 'events' around the corner, we suspect there are only a few more days before realized vol picks up and implicitly implied vol momentum scalpers are squeezed out again.
SPY (the S&P 500 ETF) Realized vol (orange) is following the same collapse path (red ovals) as it did in LTRO1 lead-up and the global CB action in November. Clearly the market is not willing to chase realized vol all the way down and maintains a premium (lower pane) which it appears to be up against here...

The lower pane above is the critical part to understanding market expectations for a risk pick up.

Clarifying: VIX 'expects' a certain move per day and as long as the move is smaller than 'expected' then a daily profit can be garnered... of course this works every day day in and day out until it doesn't and the market (and realized vol) rips your arms and legs off (as we show with read arrows below)...


The bottom-line is that a low VIX must be compared to its realized vol to judge real exuberance/complacency... but we note that there is a floor to the premium vol sellers are willing to accept to take on the rip-your-arms-and-legs-off probability. While implied vol provides insight into expectations of risk ahead, it is the premium to realized vol that tells you the real story and currently that premium remains very high - in other words, the market IS expecting considerably more volatility ahead (lower pane of first chart above).
Charts: Bloomberg

EUR/USD Bearish Outlook for August 17, 2012 (Daily Strategy)


The euro traded yesterday above weekly support of 1.2324 which can be regarded as the relief from downward pressure. However, we are in the price range of 1.2440 and 1.2206, and the pair may fluctuate within these levels.
As you know, there are a lot of problems in Europe at this time, which prevented me from buying this coin. Furthermore, we must admit that the problem is so complex that it is easy to understand. This is one of the worst scenarios for investment.
The fact that the euro is doing very well could have a lot to do with the fact that almost no volatility at the moment.
So our long term outlook remains bearish. We may see a recovery of the euro if it comes out at the mentioned above price range. 1.26 may be a strong level of resistance.
In the short term we recommend selling at 1.2408 strong resistance level with targets at 1.2324 and 1.2210, the stop loss is placed above 1.2450.



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If you need a personal consultation, contact me via e-mail: gerardo.porras@analytics.instaforex.com
If you like my Technical analysis, please vote for me, but first you must register at the portal MT5 for a vote to be valid. Thanks.
Gerardo Porras is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

Thursday, August 16, 2012

EUR/USD Wave Analysis for August 16,2012



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EUR/USD Elliott Wave
Yesterday the EUR/USD pair was trading in a downward move, developing final C wave of the bigger (2) wave (coloured purple). During the early European session we could observe strong descending movement from 1.2343 towards the 1.2263 level. Therefore, during the New York session this major pair did not manage to hold this level and the price pushed higher. Today during the Asian session we could observe continuation of yesterday's bearish mood that brings the EUR/USD pair to the new low at 1.2255 level, and we can consider this move as the end of the corrective (2) wave (coloured purple). In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (1.2240-1.2385-1.2255) with Take Profit 1 at 1.2488 (161.8% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 1.2632(261.8% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation point at 1.2240 as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor the EU CPI y/y, Core CPI y/y and U.S. Building Permits, Unemployment Claims, Housing Starts, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.2219 (S2) 1.2249 (S1) 1.2267 (PP) 1.2298 (R1) 1.2328 (R2) 1.2346 (R3) 1.2377
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 1.2290 with Stop Loss 1.2240, Take Profit 1 1.2488, and Take Profit 2 1.2632 are recommended.
Nicola Delic is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

Wednesday, August 15, 2012

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-08-15



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The spot rate broke the intermediate support of its medium term bullish channel at 1.5680 leading to acceleration. A pull back on these levels is expected before reaching the lower limit of its channel to 1.5620. Furthermore an exit of its channel would release a significant potential and initiate a bearish trend.

Technical indicators provide sell signals supporting the assumption of a decline in a short term. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement. Moreover, the inferior band strengthens the support at 1.5660.
We recommend to sell the spot rate on the level of 1.5680 with the 1st objective at 1.5620 and then at 1.5600. A breakthrough 1.5700 will invalidate this scenario.
Albert Fitoussi is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

Tuesday, August 14, 2012

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-08-14



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The spot rate is evolving since August 10th between the upper limit of its medium term bullish channel at 1.5720 and the intermediate support of this one at 1.5670. It approaches now the intermediate support supporting the assumption of a rebound. However, a break of these levels will release a good potential and will enable to reach the lower limit of this one at 1.5590.

Technical indicators do not provide clear signals but until the resistance or the support is not broken, no clear trend has emerged. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement.
The spot rate is between 2 limits and we recommend 2 scenarios: the first one is a “buy stop”, then we recommend to buy the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its resistance of 1.5720 with the 1st objective at 1.5780 and then at 1.5800. A breakthrough 1.5700 will invalidate this scenario. The second one is a rebound of its support, then we recommend to buy on the level of 1.5670 with the 1st objective at 1.5720 and then at 1.5740. A breakthrough 1.5650 will invalidate this scenario.
Albert Fitoussi is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

Monday, August 13, 2012

Thai Senator "Accidentally" Kills Secretary With Submachine Gun, Has Arrest Immunity, Faces $636 Fine



Tyler Durden's picture




We had great hopes that following the return of Merkel from vacation, the VIX would finally post an uptick. Alas, it appears that the Fed's new market desk head will not relent until the VIX is at or below 0 (alternatively, stock volume will hit 0 first, in either case confirming the death of equities as anything resembling a discounting mechanism, and validating it as a plaything of central banks). Which means that until reality does come back first slowly and then very fast, we have to focus on more "off the beaten path" news. Such as this one courtesy of BBC: Thai MP Boonsong Kowawisarat 'accidentally kills secretary.' With a submachine gun. In a restaurant. Has yet to be arrested. And faces a $636 fine if convicted.
Senator Boonsong Kowawisarat took out a 9mm Uzi submachine gun while waiting for food, the Bangkok Post reported.

He told police the gun accidentally discharged and his secretary was shot in the stomach.

Police say that the shooting happened in Phrae province, northern Thailand.

Police say that because Mr Boonsong was in shock after the incident, the restaurant owner rushed the secretary to hospital where she succumbed to gunshot wounds.

Correspondents say that it is not clear whether Mr Boonsong knew the gun was loaded before the shooting.

"From our initial inquiry, the secretary's family will not sue because they were relatives and it was an accident - he did not mean to do it," a local police officer told AFP by telephone.

Officials said it was also unclear why the senator was armed at the meal.

Police have yet to arrest the senator - a member of the upper house of the Thai parliament - as he is protected by parliamentary privilege, the Bangkok Post reported.

Mr Boonsong faces a maximum of 10 years imprisonment and a 20,000 baht fine if convicted.
That's $636. And now back to the doldrums.

Spiegel: Investors Prepare For Euro Collapse



Tyler Durden's picture




Two years in and they are only starting now? What took them so long. Also, absolutely nothing new here, but merely the latest attempt to shift public opinion and EUR viability perceptions ever so slightly by one of Germany's most respect magazines. Those whose agenda it is to spook Germany with images of fire, brimstone, and 3-page mutual assured destruction termsheets if the Euro implodes, are now free to take the podium. One wonders: if it wasn't for the inevitable collapse of the EUR.... the inevitable collapse of the EUR.... the inevitable collapse of the EUR.... the inevitable collapse of the EUR, and of course Paul Ryan, would there be absolutely no news today?
From Spiegel:
Investors Prepare for Euro Collapse

Banks, investors and companies are bracing themselves for the possibility that the euro will break up -- and are thus increasing the likelihood that precisely this will happen.
There is increasing anxiety, particularly because politicians have not managed to solve the problems. Despite all their efforts, the situation in Greece appears hopeless. Spain is in trouble and, to make matters worse, Germany's Constitutional Court will decide in September whether the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) is even compatible with the German constitution.
There's a growing sense of resentment in both lending and borrowing countries -- and in the nations that could soon join their ranks. German politicians such as Bavarian Finance Minister Markus Söder of the conservative Christian Social Union (CSU) are openly calling for Greece to be thrown out of the euro zone. Meanwhile the the leader of Germany's opposition center-left Social Democrats (SPD), Sigmar Gabriel, is urging the euro countries to share liability for the debts.
On the financial markets, the political wrangling over the right way to resolve the crisis has accomplished primarily one thing: it has fueled fears of a collapse of the euro.
. . .
Banks are particularly worried. "Banks and companies are starting to finance their operations locally," says Thomas Mayer who until recently was the chief economist at Deutsche Bank, which, along with other financial institutions, has been reducing its risks in crisis-ridden countries for months now. The flow of money across borders has dried up because the banks are afraid of suffering losses.
According to the ECB, cross-border lending among euro-zone banks is steadily declining, especially since the summer of 2011. In June, these interbank transactions reached their lowest level since the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2007.
In addition to scaling back their loans to companies and financial institutions in other European countries, banks are even severing connections to their own subsidiaries abroad. Germany's Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank apparently prefer to see their branches in Spain and Italy tap into ECB funds, rather than finance them themselves. At the same time, these banks are parking excess capital reserves at the central bank. They are preparing themselves for the eventuality that southern European countries will reintroduce their national currencies and drastically devalue them.
"Even the watchdogs don't like to see banks take cross-border risks, although in an absurd way this runs contrary to the concept of the monetary union," says Mayer.
* * *
Unicredit is an ideal example of how banks are turning back the clocks in Europe: The bank, which always prided itself as a truly pan-European institution, now grants many liberties to its regional subsidiaries, while benefiting less from the actual advantages of a European bank. High-ranking bank managers admit that, if push came to shove, this would make it possible to quickly sell off individual parts of the financial group.
In effect, the bankers are sketching predetermined breaking points on the European map. "Since private capital is no longer flowing, the central bankers are stepping into the breach," explains Mayer. The economist goes on to explain that the risk of a breakup has been transferred to taxpayers. "Over the long term, the monetary union can't be maintained without private investors," he argues, "because it would only be artificially kept alive."
The fear of a collapse is not limited to banks. Early last week, Shell startled the markets. "There's been a shift in our willingness to take credit risk in Europe," said CFO Simon Henry.
* * *
One person who has long expected the euro to break up is Philipp Vorndran, 50, chief strategist at Flossbach von Storch, a company that deals in asset management. Vorndran's signature mustache may be somewhat out of step with the times, but his views aren't. "On the financial markets, the euro experiment is increasingly viewed as a failure," says the investment strategist, who once studied under euro architect Issing and now shares his skepticism. For the past three years, Vorndran has been preparing his clients for major changes in the composition of the monetary union.
They are now primarily investing their money in tangible assets such as real estate. The stock market rally of the past weeks can also be explained by this flight of capital into real assets. After a long decline in the number of private investors, the German Equities Institute (DAI) has registered a significant rise in the number of shareholders in Germany.
Particularly large amounts of money have recently flowed into German sovereign bonds, although with short maturity periods they now generate no interest whatsoever. "The low interest rates for German government bonds reflect the fear that the euro will break apart," says interest-rate expert Burkert. Investors are searching for a safe haven. "At the same time, they are speculating that these bonds would gain value if the euro were actually to break apart."
The most radical option to protect oneself against a collapse of the euro is to completely withdraw from the monetary zone. The current trend doesn't yet amount to a large-scale capital flight from the euro zone. In May, (the ECB does not publish more current figures) more direct investments and securities investments actually flowed into Europe than out again. Nonetheless, this fell far short of balancing out the capital outflows during the troubled winter quarters, which amounted to over €140 billion.
"We notice that it's becoming increasingly difficult to sell Asians and Americans on investments in Europe," says asset manager Vorndran, although the US, Japan and the UK have massive debt problems and "are all lying in the same hospital ward," as he puts it. "But it's still better to invest in a weak currency than in one whose structure is jeopardized."
* * *
investors are increasingly speculating directly against the euro. The amount of open financial betting against the common currency -- known as short positioning -- has rapidly risen over the past 12 months. When ECB President Mario Draghi said three weeks ago that there was no point in wagering against the euro, anti-euro warriors grew a bit more anxious.
One of these warriors is John Paulson. The hedge fund manager once made billions by betting on a collapse of the American real estate market. Not surprisingly, the financial world sat up and took notice when Paulson, who is now widely despised in America as a crisis profiteer, announced in the spring that he would bet on a collapse of the euro.
Paulson is not the only one. Investor legend George Soros, who no longer personally manages his Quantum Funds, said in an interview in April that -- if he were still active -- he would bet against the euro if Europe's politicians failed to adopt a new course. The investor war against the common currency is particularly delicate because it's additionally fueled by major investors from the euro zone. German insurers and managers of large family fortunes have reportedly invested with Paulson and other hedge funds. "They're sawing at the limb that they're sitting on," says an insider.
So far, the wager by the hedge funds has not paid off, and Paulson recently suffered major losses.
* * *
And so on - more here
What is ironic is that the worse Europe gets, and the greater the threat of redenomination risk which has yet to be address properly by the ECB, the higher the S&P will go regardless of any macro, micro data, or even broad liquidity injection expectations, simply because as equity capital flows out of Europe, since it seeks equity-like returns, it will merely end up in US equities, not bonds or gold, where it will merely marinate until another Europe emigrating "greater fool" is found

EUR/USD Wave Analysis for August 13,2012




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EUR/USD Elliott Wave
Last week the EUR/USD pair was trading in downward move, developing corrective 2 wave (coloured blue) of the bigger (3) wave (coloured green). During the Friday's European and early New York sessions we could observe a strong descending movement from 1.2305 towards the 1.2240 level and we can consider this move as the end of the 2 wave (coloured green). Therefore, during the second half of the NY session, the EUR/USD retraced back to the 1.2315 (new daily high). At the moment this major pair is trading around 1.2280 level and we are expecting to see the price around 1.2750 level this week. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (1.2133-1.2441-1.2259) with Take Profit 1 at 1.2558 (100% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 1.2754 (161.8% of wave 1) To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation point at 1.2133 as Stop Loss.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.2207 (S2) 1.2236 (S1) 1.2253 (PP) 1.2282 (R1) 1.2311 (R2) 1.2328 (R3) 1.2357
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 1.2300 with Stop Loss 1.2133, Take Profit 1 1.2558 and Take Profit 2 1.2558 are recommended.
Nicola Delic is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

Thursday, August 9, 2012

EUR/USD Wave Analysis for August 9,2012



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EUR/USD Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis, the EUR/USD pair was trading in a downward move developing corrective wave A (coloured purple) of the bigger 2 wave (coloured blue). Yesterday during the Asian and European sessions we could observe a descending movement from 1.2400 towards the 1.2325 level and we can consider this move as the end of the A wave. Therefore, during yesterday's New York session and today ‘s Asian session this major pair did not manage to hold this level and the price started pushing higher when the development of the B wave (coloured purple) started. At the moment the EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.2345 level and we are expecting to see the price around 1.2260 level today. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave C retraces 100% of the wave A, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (1.2441-1.2326-1.2385) with Take Profit at 1.2261 (100% of wave A). To reduce the risk, we can use resistance at 1.2400 as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor the EU ECB Monthly Bulletin, Italian Trade Balance and U.S. Trade Balance, Unemployment Claims data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.2288 (S2) 1.2317 (S1) 1.2335 (PP) 1.2364 (R1) 1.2393 (R2) 1.2411 (R3) 1.2440
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at level 1.2340 with Stop Loss 1.2400 and Take Profit 1.2261 are recommended.
Nicola Delic is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

Wednesday, August 8, 2012

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels for August 8, 2012



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TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2445.
Strong Resistance: 1.2438.
Original Resistance: 1.2426.
Inner Sell Area: 1.2414.
Target Inner Area: 1.2385.
Inner Buy Area: 1.2355.
Original Support: 1.2344.
Strong Support: 1.2331.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.2324.

DESCRIPTION:

Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.2344 and 1.2426 and is accompanied by strong support at 1.2331 and by 1.2438 as strong resistance.
If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below a 1.2324-level today, then this will indicate considerable bearish strength, while if EUR/USD manages to break out and close above a 1.2445-level, then this will denote high bullish strength. Alternatively, you can trade in a way to open a BUY position at the level of 1.2355- and at 1.2414 – a SELL position, in this case both targets should be located at the level of 1.2385.

Best regards,
Arief Makmur is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

Tuesday, August 7, 2012

Gold Is Holding Well. Bulls Targetting 1650



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Technical Outlook and Chart Setup:
As depicted above, prices are completely out of consolidation after the test. We expect the rally to accelerate and gain momentum now. 1580 remains as strong support and bulls are eyeing the resistance levels at 1650 and 1670 immediately. Furthermore, the extensions are up to 1700 and above. Currently, the metal is subdued into a small range, but believe it or not, the breakout is expected anytime and will be rather sharp. Preparing for the next rally now, would be a good trading strategy.
Trading Recommendations:
Hold long positions; buy on dips for fresh longs. Stop below 1550 and target 1650, 1670 and 1700.

Monday, August 6, 2012

EUR/JPY Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-08-06



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Following the increase seen on Friday, the spot rate has tested the upper limit of its medium term bullish channel at 97.80. After that it demonstrated a decline. A return to the intermediate support of its channel to 96.10 is expected. Moreover this level represents a retracement of 62% of the increase between August 02th and August 05th.
Technical indicators provide sell signals supporting the assumption of a decline to its intermediate support. However, a break of these levels would lead to acceleration to the lower limit of its channel to 95.10. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong increase of these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term.
We recommend buying part of the positions on the level of 96.10. If the spot rate breaks its support level, we will buy the other part at the level of 95.10. Put a stop loss on the level of 94.80.

Thursday, August 2, 2012

GOLD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-08-02



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Gold is currently testing the intermediate support of its medium term bearish channel at 1 594 suggesting a rebound. However, a breakthrough this level will trigger a decline to the lower limit 1 540.
Technical indicators do not provide clears signals but until the support is not broken, the assumption of a rebound is most likely. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement.
According to previous events, the market will provide a bullish opportunity at the level of 1 594 with the 1st objective at 1 605 and then at 1 610. A breakthrough 1 591 will alter this scenario.

Wednesday, August 1, 2012

USD/CHF Wave Analysis for August 1 - 2012



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USD/CHF Elliott Wave
Yesterday the USD/CHF pair was trading in a downward move developing corrective wave B (coloured blue) of the bigger wave (2) (coloured green). During the European and New York trading sessions we could observe descending movement from 0.9805 towards the 0.9740 where this major pair found support and price started pushing higher at the end of NY session. Today the USD/CHF pair broke yesterday’s low at 09740 and price reached new 3 days low at 0.9735 level. We can consider this move as the end of the B wave (coloured blur) and we can expect to see price around 0.9850 today. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave C retraces 100% of the wave A, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (0.9695-0.9823-0.9735) with Take Profit at 0.9856 (100% of wave A). Resistance at 0.9700 can be used as Stop Loss.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 0.9705 (S2) 0.9730 (S1) 0.9745 (PP) 0.9769 (R1) 0.9794 (R2) 0.9809 (R3) 0.9833
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 0.9775 with Stop Loss 0.9700 and Take Profit 0.9856 are recommended.

Tuesday, July 31, 2012

GOLD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-07-31



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Gold is currently testing the intermediate resistance of its medium term bullish channel at 1 633 and seems to initiate a decline. However, a breakthrough these levels will release good potential and reach the upper limit of this one to 1 658.
Technical indicators do not provide clears signals but until the resistance is not broken, the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement.
According to previous events, the market will provide a bullish opportunity as soon as the gold has broken through its resistance of 1 633 with the 1st objective at 1 645 and then at 1 650. A breakthrough 1 630 will invalidate this scenario.

Monday, July 30, 2012

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-07-30



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The spot rate is currently testing the upper limit of its medium term trading range at 1.5770 and seems to initiate a decline. However, a break through these levels will release a good potential and initiate a violent bullish trend.
Technical indicators do not provide clears signals but approach an overbuy zone supporting the assumption of a decline. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong increase these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term.
According to previous events, the market will provide a bullish opportunity as soon as the spot rate has broken through its resistance of 1.5770 with the 1st objective at 1.5830 and then at 1.5850. A breakthrough 1.5750 will invalidate this scenario.

Friday, July 27, 2012

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels for Jully 27, 2012



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Today’s Technical Levels:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.2334.
Strong Resistance: 1.2327.
Original Resistance: 1.2316.
Inner Sell Area: 1.2304.
Target Inner Area: 1.2276.
Inner Buy Area: 1.2247.
Original Support: 1.2236.
Strong Support: 1.2224.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.2217.
Description:
Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.2236 and 1.2316 and is accompanied by strong support at 1.2224 and by 1.2327 as strong resistance.
If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below a 1.2217 level today, this will indicate a considerable bearish strength, while if EUR/USD manages to break out and close above a 1.2334 level, this will denote high bullish strength. Alternatively, you can trade in a way to open a BUY position at the level of 1.2247, and SELL position at 1.2304; in this case both targets should be located at the level of 1.2276.

Friday, July 20, 2012

Gold Continues To Remain Sideways Choppy Before Breakdown.. 2012-07-20



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Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:
As it is depicted above, the yellow metal remains locked in a decreasing resistance/ increasing support type cone structure. If we study the wave counts after the highs registered at 1640.00 levels, we are in the 5th wave now which should break down to lower levels. Until 1620/25 levels are not breached, expect gold to breakdown. We recommend to go short on any intraday rallies towards 1580/90 levels.
Trading Recommendations:
Remain short, stop at 1620/25, and target fresh lows.

Thursday, July 19, 2012

Gold Bais Turns Increasingly Towards A Bearish Breakdown 2012-07-19



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Technical Outlook and Chart Setup:
Yesterday we discussed that the yellow metal is vulnerable towards a bearish breakdown till prices are below 1600.00 level. Today we re-confirm the above depicted structure. Immediate resistance is now at 1600.00 level, it is expected that prices should not exceed this for now. Expect a bearish breakdown to materialize soon, which would bring in a paradigm shift in the trend. We shall turn bullish only on a clear break of 1620.00 level on the higher side.
Trading Recommendations:
Short at current market price (1673-75), Stop 1620, target open.

Wednesday, July 18, 2012

Gold Vulnerable Below 1600.00



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Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:
Let us focus specifically on the recent consolidating structure, as shown above. It is basically a cone structure within the down swing from 1780 levels at least. Such structures have slight tendencies to break towards the swing or trend (which is down in this case). Till the time we are within the consolidation, our strategy should be to buy the support (1540/50) and sell resistance (1590/1600). Aggressive trading should be performed only on a break on either side.
Trading Recommendations:
For now, buy the support region around 1550.00 and sell the resistance region around 1590.00. Later on, trade will be in the direction of break.

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

EUR/USD Technical Levels and Trading Recommendations for July 17, 2012





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Overview

Proceeding from today's H4 chart, the pair is still taking the upward movement after its rebound from the Support level 1.2170 and currently is approaching to the Resistance level 1.2330. If the pair is able to break the Resistance level and close 4H above, we will receive a strong indicator for more bullish move which enables the Resistance level 1.2405. Then we should wait for breaking this Resistance level to continue the bullish signals. In case the pair manages to break this Resistance level 1.2405, we will get more bullish signals till reaching the Resistance level 1.2460.
On the other side, if the pair fails to break the Support level 1.2330 and bounces from it, this will provide a good opportunity for the bearish signals till reaching the Support level 1.2225. Then we should wait for breaking the Support level to continue the bearish signals. Given that the pair manages to break this Support level and closes 4H below, a bullish strength will provide new sell signals and enable the Support level of 1.2170 as a level target. Based on the given H4 chart, the technical indicators provide more bullish signals, but as long as the Resistance level of 1.2330 is unbroken, the downward move is still expected invalidating the bullish outlook. Therefore, we should wait for more confirmations before making the decision.
Resistance and Support Levels
R3(1.2460)
R2(1.2405)
R1(1.2330)
S1(1.2225)
S2(1.2170)
S3(1.2140)

Trading Recommendations
According to previous analysis, we recommend buying after breaking the Resistance level 1.2330 and closing 4H above with TP 1.2400; SL closing 4 hours below the Resistance level will be appropriate.

Monday, July 16, 2012

EUR/USD - Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points for July 16 - 20, 2012




The pivot point is used as support and resistance at the same time; it is the first level that we observe. For this week the pivot points (weekly and monthly) for EUR/USD are: 1.2248 weekly; 1.2564 monthly.
The euro is located near the pivot weekly and bellow the Moving Average of 200 periods.
Therefore, the pivot points indicate the following:
1) If the price set by the pivot point is broken in an upward motion, the market is bullish and, conversely, if the pivot point is broken in a downward motion, the market is bearish.
2) They can provide points of market entry and exit or can be removed which is useful for trading strategy. For example, a sell limit order can be placed on a level support for open if this support is broken and the stop loss can be placed for this order in one of the Resistances.
Signal For 16 - 20 July
Buy long 1.2170 with Take Profit at 1.2410 and with the Stop Loss at 1.2100 or Buy above 1.2250 with Take Profit at 1.1.2410.

____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.2504
Weekly - R2 = 1.2419
Weekly - R1 = 1.2333
Weekly Pivot = 1.2248
Weekly - S1 = 1.2162
Weekly - S2 = 1.2077
Weekly - S3 = 1.1991


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____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.3301
Monthly - R2 = 1.3023
Monthly - R1 = 1.2842
Monthly Pivot = 1.2564
Monthly - S1 = 1.2383
Monthly - S2 = 1.2105
Monthly - S3 = 1.1924


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Friday, July 13, 2012

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for July 13, 2012



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On the mid-term scale, the GBP/USD currency pair is moving sideways in a slightly bearish channel since it managed to breakdown the mid-term uptrend line depicted on the chart.
Price levels of 1.5460 and 1.5520 which correspond to 61.8% and 50% of Fibonacci levels based on the previous bullish swing 1.5266 up to 1.5774.
On the intraday scale the price zone of 1.5400 corresponds to the lower limit of the long-term channel which constitutes a very strong support zone and is likely to push the GBP/USD pair to the upside to 1.5520 and 1.5570 then 1.5640 with SL located below 1.5390.
A short-term Head & Shoulders reversal pattern was seen this week at the key-zone of 1.5460 – 1.5520 which was broken down yesterday. However, GBP/USD failed to make higher highs. Instead, it’s building a bearish pressure over the support level of 1.5400.
The pair is probably forming a mid-term bearish Head & Shoulders reversal pattern with its right shoulder located around R1 (1.5645) which is rendered a valid sell entry with SL located above 1.5725.
The current price level 1.5500 constitutes a strong intraday resistance for GBP/USD which should be watched for price action today as its breakthrough will open the way towards the next resistance at 1.5570 then at 1.5640.

Thursday, July 12, 2012

Gold Major Breakdown May Be Under Way 2012-07-12



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Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:
As depicted above, gold seems to be in a larger consolidation structure since last quarter 2011, the dropping line of resistance. Taking into account the inside wave structure, the yellow metal seems to be in a wave 4 consolidation between 1540.00 and 1630.00. Anything above 1630.00 will break out of the consolidation structure; but for now we expect a breakdown of 1530.00 levels in near term.
Trade Recommendations:
Sell intraday rallies 1580.00/1600.00 levels, Stop at 1630.00, Target Open.

Tuesday, July 10, 2012

GOLD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-07-10



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Gold is presently testing the intermediate resistance of its medium term bearish channel at 1 594 and looks like making a decline. Nevertheless, a puncture of these levels will provide potential and the pair will be able to reach the upper limit of this one to 1 620.
Technical indicators provide sell-signals and until the resistance is not broken the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong decline these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term.
According to previous events the market will provide a bullish opportunity as soon as gold has broken through its resistance of 1 594 with the 1st objective at 1 605 and then at 1 610. A break through 1 591 will invalidate this scenario.

Monday, July 9, 2012

EUR/USD: Weekly Technical Levels for July 9 - 13, 2012


Weekly Technical Levels:


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Tip (s):

R3 and S3 are considered as clear indicators of the maximum range of extreme volatility, though it is possible to pass them through.
Pivot lines work well on the sideways markets, as the prices are most likely to be located between the R1 and S1 line.
Within a strong trend the price is expected to be lower than the pivot point line and continue the movement.
In case of the breaking news release that may affect the market, the price is likely to go straight through R1 or S1 and even reach R2 & R3 or S2 & S3.



Observation (s):

  • If the trend is of upside character, then the strength of the currency will be defined as following: EUR is an uptrend and USD is a downtrend.
  • Most of the traders use the Fibonacci retracement to determine accurately the psychological support and resistance levels.