EUR/USD Wave Analysis for August 13,2012

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EUR/USD Elliott Wave
Last week the EUR/USD pair was trading in downward move, developing corrective 2 wave (coloured blue) of the bigger (3) wave (coloured green). During the Friday's European and early New York sessions we could observe a strong descending movement from 1.2305 towards the 1.2240 level and we can consider this move as the end of the 2 wave (coloured green). Therefore, during the second half of the NY session, the EUR/USD retraced back to the 1.2315 (new daily high). At the moment this major pair is trading around 1.2280 level and we are expecting to see the price around 1.2750 level this week. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (1.2133-1.2441-1.2259) with Take Profit 1 at 1.2558 (100% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 1.2754 (161.8% of wave 1) To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation point at 1.2133 as Stop Loss.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.2207 (S2) 1.2236 (S1) 1.2253 (PP) 1.2282 (R1) 1.2311 (R2) 1.2328 (R3) 1.2357
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 1.2300 with Stop Loss 1.2133, Take Profit 1 1.2558 and Take Profit 2 1.2558 are recommended.
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