GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for February 29, 2012

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GBP/USD Survey according to the Linear Regression Channels over the past two weeks:

- After failure to trade below 1.5800 yesterday, GBP/USD pair is now testing 1.5925 which is corresponding to the upper limit of the bullish blue channel.

- GBP/USD respected the upper limit of both channels depicted on the chart which showed bearish presence pushing the pair down to 1.5802. However, Price came back quickly to break this channel with quite strong bullish 4H candlestick.

- GBP/USD is now testing the high for this month at 1.5927. Moreover, it has a strong resistance area at 1.5940-1.5960.

- Broken limit of the violet channel at 1.5850 is now acting as support level for the pair.

4H closure above 1.5960 allows the pair to reach 1.6050.

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The 1H chart of GBP/USD shows that the pair has an important support level at 1.5900 which is the lower limit of the violet bullish channel, the intermediate line of the Yellow one and the upper limit of the transverse blue channel.

This price level 1.5900 is significant as Bullish Price Action towards it pushes the pair to the upside reaching 1.5950 initially.

Break of this level will allow the pair to reach 1.5850 which is corresponding to the lower limit of the Yellow bullish channel which constitutes an important support for the pair today.

Today we should be cautious as channels are quite wide indicating a possible strong movement whatever the direction is.

 

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for February 28, 2012

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GBP/USD Survey according to the Linear Regression Channels over the past two weeks:

-Yesterday, GBP/USD pair failed to reach its resistance level corresponding to this month high 1.5927 recording a daily high at 1.5903.

-GBP/USD respected the upper limit of both channels depicted on the chart which showed bearish presence pushing the pair down to 1.5813.

-The nearest support levels are located below the current prices around 1.5750 and 1.5650 levels.

- The nearest resistance level is at 1.5860 which is the upper limit of the bearish violet channel.

It is necessary to mention that last week the GBP/USD pair moved within a strong bullish trend and reached these levels despite the strong decline. Therefore, the reverse movement is likely to take place regardless of whether it is short-term or not.

The pair is expected to continue downside movement towards 1.5750 which should be watched for Price Action.

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Yesterday, the GBP/USD pair moved within a narrow bearish channel marked on the chart.

The pair is showing bullish presence at testing of the lower limit of the Yellow channel.

Break of the narrow violet bearish channel 1.5840 will allow the pair to reach 1.5860 (the intermediate line of the blue channel ) which is expected to bring bearish presence again to the market.

The pair should break the lower limit of the yellow channel at 1.5805 in order to resume its downside movement towards 1.5750 and 1.5650.

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for February 27, 2012

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GBP/USD Survey according to the Linear Regression Channels over the past two weeks:

-GBP/USD is now testing the upper limit of both channels depicted on the chart.

-presently the GBP/USD pair is approaching the resistance level corresponding to the month high 1.5927 recorded on February 8.

- The last candlestick on 4H timeframe is “inverted hammer” and is considered as bearish.

It is necessary to mention that last week the GBP/USD pair moved within a strong bullish trend and reached these levels despite the strong decline. Therefore, the reverse movement is likely to take place regardless of whether it is short-term or not.
The nearest support levels are located below the current prices near the 1.5840, 1.5750 and 1.5650 levels.




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Last week the GBP/USD pair showed the strong bearish reaction towards the upper limit of the Yellow channel that took place during the last hours of the trading day.

Also the pair has an Intraday support at 1.5805-1.5785 which corresponds to the intermediate line of the Yellow channel and to the lower limit of both Violet & Blue channels.
Bullish Reaction towards this area confirms the tendency and indicates the opportunity of bullish movement.
The breakdown of this area will enable a decline to the lower limit of the Yellow channel located near the point 1.5750.
Based on the previous analysis

The market indicates a bearish tendency at the current price 1.5888 with TP at 1.5835, 1.5805 levels with the next target seen at the 1.5800 level.

In case the support is passed through, the further decline to the point 1.5750 is likely to take place. However, the breakdown of the 1.5927 level will cancel the bearish scenario.

Bullish movement towards 1.5805-1.5785 provides the signal for long positions with the breakdown of at 1.5780 level.

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for February 24, 2012

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This week we mentioned that GBP/USD is bearish for the following reasons:

- The GBP/USD currency pair found resistance around 1.5875 which corresponds to the upper limit of both drawn channels.

- The pair has successfully broken the intermediate line of the bullish channel at 1.5800.

- The pair is probably forming a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern which is marked on the chart.

After successful retesting of the intermediate line of the bullish violet channel at 1.5800, GBP/USD currency pair witnessed strong decline recording a daily low at 1.5644 thus breaking the lower limit of the bullish channel around 1.5720.

Break of this channel opens the way for the pair to visit the lower limit of the bearish channel around 1.5585 later, but as expected reversal took place at the daily support at 1.5650 to retest broken supports during the bearish decline of Wednesday.

The pair is now testing the backside of the broken bullish channel which didn't show strong bearish reaction till now.

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The pair is now testing the upper limit of the wide bearish blue channel after stepping outside the bearish yellow channel with no obvious bullish strength there.

The pair has a strong resistance level at 1.5760 which the pair didn't succeed to reach yesterday.

It's expected to break the lower limit of the bullish violet channel opening the way to resume its downside movement towards 1.5650 then 1.5585.

Breaks of price level 1.5815 will invalidate this scenario.

 

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 23, 2012

AUD/USD is now developing corrective wave B of long term uptrend (colored light green in the chart) from 1.0844. Within this wave there are subwaves A, B, and C (colored royal blue in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 1.0815. This subwave was confirmed when the price broke below 1.0628 (top of wave A). However there are also smaller waves within the latter wave - they are A, and B (colored red) that is now developing from 1.0597.

Now the targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0145-1.0844, and expansions off 1.0844-1.0628-1.0815.

Supports:

- 1.0599 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0577 = .382 retracement
- 1.0495 = .50 ret

If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0815-1.0597.

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Overbought/Oversold

The larger wave is now moving down, so it's prefereable to go short when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (20-35 pips above the current prices), watch for possibilities to go short at or near the indicated resistances.

Read more on how to trade with Fibonacci levels.

USD/CAD Elliott Wave Count for February 22, 2012

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Market Overview
The USD/CAD pair wave trading in upward move yesterday, in European session we could observe price broker 50,100 and 200 EMA resistance and reached a new high at 0.9975 level,in the last few hours of a New York session price pullback to 50EMA.Today price continued to fallow bullish mood and price reached a new high in Asian session at 0.9988.Price did not manage to hold this level and price pushed back to 0.9955 level.In European session after we saw bad news from Europe this major pair once again push higher. We are expecting to see downward movement today to 0.9900 level,We need to take a look at USA Existing Home Sales today that could affect this pair.

Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 0.9904 (S2) 0.9924 (S1) 0.9936 (PP) 0.9956 (R1) 0.9976 (R2) 0.9988(R3) 1.0008

USD/CAD Elliott Wave Analysis

The USD/CAD pair is finishing (2) wave of bigger (v) wave.We are expecting to see end of (2) wave around 0.9995 and 1.0019 where we can enter short for (3) wave. According to our wave rules and taking into consideration that wave (3) will finish around 161.8% of (1) wave,we can project our targets for today with Fibonacci extension(1.0050-0.9906-0.9995) to first take profit level at 0.9863(100% of wave (1)) and second take profit at 0.9774(161.8% of wave (1)).

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules the trend is expected to begin the downward movement to go lower today. That is why Short position at levels 0.9995 with Stop Loss at 1.0050, Take Profit 1 at 0.9863 and Take Profit 2 at 0.9774 are recommended

 

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EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels for February 20, 2012

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TODAY  TECHNICAL  LEVEL :

Breakout BUY Level : 1.3282.

Strong Resistance : 1.3274.

Original Resistance : 1.3262.

Inner Sell Area : 1.3249.

Target Inner Area : 1.3218.

Inner Buy Area : 1.3186.

Original Support : 1.3174.

Strong Support : 1.3161.

Breakout SELL Level : 1.3153.

DESCRIPTION :

Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.3174 and 1.3262 and is accompanied by strong support at 1.3161 and by 1.3274 as strong resistance.

If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below a 1.3153-level today, then this will indicate considerable bearish strength, while if EUR/USD manages to break out and close above a 1.3282-level, then this will denote high bullish strength. Alternatively, you can trade in a way to open a BUY position at the level of 1.3186, and at 1.3249– a SELL position, in this case both targets should be located at the level of 1.3218.
 

 

GOLD Intraday Technical analysis 2012-02-17

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The gold is currently testing the intermediate resistance of its medium term bearish channel in 1735 suggesting a decline. However a break of these levels would allow it to reach the upper limit of its channel to 1747.

Technical indicators don't give clear signals but are approaching the overbought zone suggesting a decline. Bollinger bands are much discarded to a result of the strong increase of these days. Stabilization is expected in the short term.

According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the gold will have broken its resistance in 1735 with a 1st objective of 1745, then 1747. A break in 1733 would invalidate this scenario.

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 16, 2012

AUD/USD is now trading within impulse wave 5 of medium term uptrend (colored royal blue in the chart) that started from 1.0525, this wave is part of wave A of a larger degree from 1.0145 (colored light green in the chart). Now the former wave has subwaves A, B, and C, with potential subwave C is still developing from 1.0628 (colored magenta in the chart). This wave also has its subwaves, they are A, and B (colored red in the chart) that is developing from 1.0775.

The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 1.0231-1.0687-1.0525, 1.0525-1.0844-1.0628.

Resistances:

- 1.0825 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0947 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0981 = OP

If the price keeps falling the targets below will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0145-1.0844, and expansions off 1.0844-1.0628-1.0775, 1.0775-1.0679-1.0737.

Supports:

- 1.0641 = OP
- 1.0582-77 = confluence area of expanded objective point (XOP) and .382 retracement
- 1.0559 = OP
- 1.0495 = .50 ret

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Overbought/Oversold

The larger wave is now moving up, so it's prefereable to open long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (current prices as well), watch for possibilities of going long at or near the indicated supports.

Read more on how to trade with Fibonacci levels.

 

GBP/USD Intraday Technical analysis 2012-02-15

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The spot rate is currently testing the upper limit of its medium term bearish channel in 1.5770 and seems to initiate a decline. However a break of these levels would free up significant potential and initiate a bullish trend.
Technical indicators provide sellers with signals suggesting a decline in the short term. Bollinger bands are much discarded to a result of the strong decline of these days. But until that the resistance is not broken the assumption of a stabilization is most likely
According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the spot rate will have broken its resistance in 1.5770 with a 1st objective of 1.5850, then 1.5870. A break in 1.5750 would invalidate this scenario.
 

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 14, 2012

GBP/JPY is developing impulse subwave C (colored royal blue in the chart) that is part of impulse wave A of a larger degree (colored light green in the chart) from 117.22. Within the former subwave there are also waves of a still smaller degree - they are A, B, and C (colored magenta in the chart), and subwave C is still developing from 121.34. Subwave C was confirmed when the price broke above 122.79 (top of subwave A). However it will be over if the price breaks below 121.34.

Now the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 127.25-117.22, and expansions off 117.22-121.98-119.53, 119.53-122.79-121.34, 121.34-123.11-121.62.

Resistances:

- 122.71 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 123.35-39-42 = confluence area of COP, objective point (OP), and .618 retracement
- 123.75 = OP
- 124.29 = OP

If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 119.53-123.11, and expansions off 123.11-121.98-122.86.

Supports:

- 121.32 = .50 ret
- 121.03 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 120.90 = .618 ret

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Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving up, therefore it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (30-35 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (60-75 pips below the current prices).

Read more on how to trade with Fibonacci levels.

 

GOLD Intraday Technical analysis 2012-02-13

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The gold is currently testing the intermediate resistance of its medium term bearish channel in 1733 suggesting a decline. However a break of these levels would allow it to reach the upper limit of its channel to 1758.

RSI provide buyers signals but approaching to the overbuy zone suggesting a decline. Bollinger bands are stabilized showing a more regular volatility.

According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the gold will have broken its resistance in 1733 with a 1st objective of 1745, then 1748. A break in 1731 would invalidate this scenario.

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis & Trade Recommendation February 10, 2012

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Although the GBP/USD curreny pair is moving within a slightly bullish channel, it begad to move sideways after hitting the resistance level 1.5870 which may be a trend change point.

Visiting resistance level 1.5870 showed BEARISH price action forming a possible Head and Shoulders reversal pattern with neckline at 1.5785.

Selling was suggested yesterday at the the resistance 1.5870 forming the right shoulder of the H&S pattern with profit till now which needs to be confirmed with 4H closure below 1.5785.

GBP/USD support area marked in blue on the chart at 1.5734-1.5750 which is the lower limit of both consolidation range & the newly formed bullish channel should be watched for a possible intraday reversal.

Its expected that support area will hold the price above in the first visit, pushing the pair to retrace towards 1.5835 which will be another good SELL entry.

Break of this support area 1.5734-1.5750 will open the way for a quick decline of GBP/USD price.

Based on the previous analysis

It's suggested to take some profits of yesterday's short position or even BUY with small lot size at or near to 1.5734-1.5750 with TP at 1.5830.

SELLING is suggested at 1.5830 & 1.5870 for a long-term SHORT position with TP at 1.5800,1.5730, 1.5660 with SL above 1.5930.

 

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for February 9, 2012

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The pair managed to make a bullish breakout of the consolidation range 1.5650 - 1.5740 within the bullish channel which opened the way for the pair to test 1.5775 that was broken too.

Break of resistance level 1.5775 opened the way directly towards 1.5870 which showed BEARISH price action in the first time.

Testing of the SUPPORT level 1.5740 showed BULLISH price action which led to break through 1.5775, the intraday resistance reaching 1.5870.

This week, we suggested a Short position which hit its SL with 4H closure above 1.5870. However, the pair came again to consolidate below 1.5870.

Now there's no obvious view for the pair as it made breakout above 1.5870 then failed to fixate above coming again below it showing the bearish domination again.

Also it's important to mention that the GBP/USD currency pair has a strong support area marked in blue on the chart at 1.5734-1.5750 which is the lower limit of both consolidation range & the newly formed bullish channel.

Based on the previous analysis

It's suggested to SELL at the resistance 1.5870 & BUY at 1.5734-1.5750 untill the pair decides its next destination outside the consolidation range 1.5735 - 1.5870.

GBP/USD: Intraday Technical Analysis for February 8, 2012.

Pivot Point: 1.5863.

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GBP/USD:

• Resistance: 1.6123. (Sell below this level).
• Support: 1.5725. (Buy above this level).
  

Trading Recommendations:

According to the previous events, the price is still located between levels 1.61 and 1.572.

BUY-deals are recommended higher than the 1.5725 level with targets at levels 1.5820 and 1.59.
The descending movement will probably take place lower than the 1.6123 level with the first targets at levels 1.5965, 1.59 and 1.5835.

Overview:

It should be noted that the market revealed the signs of instability. The trend movement was controversial as it took place in a narrow sideways channel. Concerning the previous events, the price is still between the levels 1.61 and 1.572 so it is recommended to be cautious while making deals in this area. Therefore, it is necessary to wait till the sideways channel is passed through. Then, the market will probably indicate the signs of a bullish trend. In other words, BUY-deals are recommended higher than the 1.5725 level (Support 3: 1.5707) with its first target at level 1.582. From this point the pair is likely to begin the ascending movement to the point 1.5863 and further to the level to 1.59. However, if the pair is not manage to pass through the level 1.6123, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the strong resistance level 1.6123. In this regard, SELL-deals are recommended lower than the 1.61 level with the first target of 1.596. It is possible that the pair will turn to downward movement continuing the development of the bearish trend to the level 1.5835.

Intraday Technical levels (the 8^th of February, 2012):

R3:1.6052
R2:1.5978
R1:1.5937
PP:1.5863
S1:1.5822
S2:1.5748
S3:1.5707

Definition (s):

Range I – A long-term mean reversion strategy that looks to go against strong divergence from the pair’s average value. It will typically hold trades for an extended period of time and is one of the slower moving trading strategies.
Range II– Like Breakout 2, uses sentiment as a filter for its trades. It will use a simple oscillator range trading strategy but only take the trading signals if SSI is not at extremes. It is fairly short-term in nature and will tend to trade very little during times of strong trending moves. It is likewise one of the most volatility-sensitive trading systems and will tend to do poorly during times of sharp currency moves.

Observation (s):

Please check out the market volatility before investing, because the sight price may have already been reached and scenarios become invalidate.
Stop Loss should NEVER exceed your maximum exposure amounts.

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EUR/USD Elliott wave count for February 7, 2012

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Market Overview
Yesterday in early Asian session we could observe downward movement of the EUR/USD pair to the 1.3100 level (200EMA Support). European session continued in bullish mood and the price reached a low around 1.3025, in New York session we could observe slight upward movement and price filling opening gap at 1.3138.Today in Asian session this major tests again 200EMA where this pair can find big support and push back to opening price, we can expect a test around 1.3160 level before we see EURO/DOLLAR above 1.3200

Support and Resistance levels
(S3)1.2986 (S2)1.3029 (S1)1.3056 (PP)1.3100 (R1)1.3143 (R2)1.3170 (R3)1.3214

Important News
(EUR)French Trade Balance
(EUR)German Industrial Production m/m
(USD)Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies
(USD)IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
(USD)Consumer Credit m/m

EUR/USD Elliott Wave Analysis

Euro-Dollar Pair finishes 1 wave of bigger iii wave at 1.3140 level, wave 2 is over at 1.3089 and we are currently in 3 wave.Concerning our wave rules and assuming that wave 3 will finish at 161.8% of wave 1 we can project our potential targets level with Fibonacci extensions(1.3026-1.3140-1.3089) to 1.3205 level(100% of wave 1) and 1.3273(161.8% of wave 1)we can use end of wave 2 for our stop loss.

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules the trend is expected to begin the upward movement to go higher today. That is why LONG position at levels 1.3150 with Stop Loss at 1.3090, Take Profit 1 at 1.3205 and Take Profit 2 at 1.3273 are recommended

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EUR/USD Intraday Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for February 6, 2012

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On January 27, EUR/USD reached Fibonacci level 38.2% at 1.3232 showing bearish presence there.

Last Tuesday, EUR/USD currency pair managed to make a bearish breakout & close outside the narrow bullish channel marked in brown.

The EUR/USD currency pair tried two successive days to return within the broken channel with failure.

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Retesting of the broken channel took place last week failing to fixate within the broken channel again & is moving within the newly formed bearish channel marked on the chart.

The view for the pair is still bearish as long as it's consolidating within the newly formed bearish channel and below resistance area 1.3215-1.3235

Sellers should take profits at 1.3105, 1.3060 then 1.3000 with possible further targets to be mentioned later.

Bearish reaction towards the lower limit of the broken bullish channel & the upper limit of the bearish channel opened the way to the lower limit of the newly formed bearish channel at 1.3030 initially which got hit short time ago.

Price action towards 1.3030-1.3000 should be watched in order to determine the next target for the pair, as its break will lead to 1.2950 then 1.2850.

Failure to break 1.3030-1.3000 pushes the pair towards 13100-1.3120 which will be good SELL entry.

 

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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 3, 2012

GBP/JPY has just developed corrective wave B of medium term uptrend (colored magenta in the chart), and now the pair is moving within potential impulse wave C from 119.53.

The targets above are Fibonacci retracements of 121.98-119.53, 127.25-117.22, and expansions off 117.22-121.98-119.53, 119.53-120.92-120.16.

Resistances:

- 121.02-04 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and .618 retracement
- 121.55 = objective point (OP)
- 122.24 = .50 ret
- 122.-4147 = confluence area of expanded objective point (XOP) and COP

However, if the downmove continues the immediate supports will be Fibnoacci retracements of 117.22-121.98, and expansions off 121.98-119.53-120.92.

Supports:

- 119.41 = COP
- 119.04 = .618 ret
- 118.47 = objective point (OP)

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Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving up, therefore it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (10-15 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (30-45 pips below the current prices).

Read more on how to trade with Fibonacci levels.

InstaForex

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis & Trading Recommendations for February 2, 2012

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After a break though the long-term bearish channel marked in blue, the pair is trending up inside the narrow bullish channel marked in brown.

The pair managed to make a bullish breakout of the consolidation range 1.5650 - 1.5740 which opened the way for the pair to test 1.5775 that was broken too.

Break of resistance level 1.5775 which took place yesterday opened the way directly towards 1.5870 which showed BEARISH price action.

Now the view for the GBP/USD pair is Bearish after failure of price to fixate above resistance level 1.5870.

Based on the previous analysis

The view for the pair is bearish but to minimize the position risk :

SELLING is suggested as soon as the pair retests the resistance level 1.5870 OR After 1H closure below 1.5815.

TP should be placed at 1.5820, 1.5775, 1.5740, 1.5690 then 1.5630 & SL should be placed above 1.5900.

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GOLD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-02-01

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Gold is moving in a medium-term trading range and approaching the intermediate resistance of this one at 1,748 suggesting a decline. However, a break of these levels will allow it to reach the upper limit of its trading range at 1,888.

RSI doesn't give clear signals but is approaching the overbuy zone suggesting a decline. 

Bollinger bands have greatly tightened during recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement.

According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the gold will have broken its resistance at 1,748 with the 1st objective of 1,760, then 1,765. A break through 1,746 will change this scenario.

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