AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 18, 2012

AUD/USD broke above 1.0386 to show wave C of medium term uptrend (this one is colored magenta in the chart, and started from 1.0231). As this wave progresses the targets above may be Fibonacci expansions off A-B waves 1.0145-1.0377-1.0231, and also subwaves A and B (they're colored red in the chart) 1.0231-1.0449-1.0354.

If the price breaks above 1.0449 we'll have full grown subwave C (from 1.0354) that is part of wave C of larger degree (from 1.0231).

The immediate resistances:

- 1.0463 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0489 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0572 = OP
- 1.0606 = expanded objective point (XOP)

However if corrective subwave B continues (from 1.0449), we'll calculate immediate supports using Fibonacci retracements from 1.0145-1.0449, 1.0231-1.0449.
Immediate supports:

- 1.0366 = .382 retracement
- 1.0340-33 = confluence area of .50 ret and .382 ret
- 1.0314 = .618 ret
- 1.0297 = .50 ret
- 1.0261 = .618 ret

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Overbought/Oversold

The larger wave is still going up, so it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (25-35 pips below the current prices).

Read more on how to trade with Fibonacci levels.

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GBP/USD: Intraday Technical Analysis for January 17, 2012.

Pivot Point: 1.5317.

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GBP/USD:

• Resistance: 1.54.
• Breakout above 1.5420 (Buy above this level).
   
• Support: 1.5245.
• Breakout below 1.5225. (Sell below this level).

Trading Recommendations:

According to previous events, the price is still trapped between 1.523 and 1.540.

• Buy above 1.5420 with target at 1.55, then 1.5575.
• Below 1.5225 look for further downside with the first target of 1.5150, 1.51.

Overview:

It should be noted that the market was not stable and the trend was not also clear (it was in a tight sideways range), according to previous events, the price is still trapped between 1.523 and 1.54, so it is wise to be careful in this area. Therefore the first step is to wait for a period of tight sideways range market before breakouts. Then, it is probable that the market will show the signs of a bullish trend. In other words, it will be a good sign to buy above 1.542 (Support 1: 1.5245) with the first target of 1.55 and it'll climb towards 1.545, then to 1.56. However, if the pair does not manage to break through 1.5615, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below 1.5615 and the level will act as a strong resistance, for that it will be good to sell below 1.56 with the first target of 1.5525 and it will call for downtrend in order to continue bearish trend towards 1.5250. It also should be noted that if there is a breakout at the level of 1.5225, then the trend will continue to be bearish to 1.51.

Intraday Technical levels (the 17^th of January, 2012):

R3:1.5431
R2:1.5393
R1:1.5355
PP:1.5317
S1:1.5279
S2:1.5241
S3:1.5203

Definition (s):

Range I – A long-term mean reversion strategy that looks to go against strong divergence from the pair’s average value. It will typically hold trades for an extended period of time and is one of the slower moving trading strategies.
Range II– Like Breakout 2, uses sentiment as a filter for its trades. It will use a simple oscillator range trading strategy but only take the trading signals if SSI is not at extremes. It is fairly short-term in nature and will tend to trade very little during times of strong trending moves. It is likewise one of the most volatility-sensitive trading systems and will tend to do poorly during times of sharp currency moves.

Observation (s):

Please check out the market volatility before investing, because the sight price may have already been reached and scenarios become invalidate.
Stop Loss should NEVER exceed your maximum exposure amounts.

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AUD/USD Wave Analysis for January 16, 2012

The AUD/USD pair is moving in the C wave of the 4th order from 1.0377. It includes sub-waves A, B and C of the 2nd order. C goes from 1.0377. The wave also includes its sub-waves A and B of the 1st order, C goes from 1.0333. Lower targets provide correction grids of 1.0377-1.0145, expansion 1.0386-1.0145-1.0377, 1.0377-1.0289-1.0367, 1.0367-1.0231-1.0333.

Support levels:


- 1.0249 = 61.8% expansion
- 1.0228-25 = accumulation of levels – 61.8% and 161.8% expansion
- 1.0197-95 = accumulation of levels - 100% expansion and 78.6% correction.


If the pair is to continue the upward movement, the nearest resistance levels will provide expansion grids 1.0044-1.0386-1.0145, 1.0145-1.0377-1.0231.
Resistance levels:
- 1.0374 = 61.8% expansion
- 1.0463 = 100% expansion

Direction of SELL-deals up to 1.0333

Wave levels (marking):

1st order (the lowest) – dotted line
2nd, 3rd order and higher – line weight 1, 2 etc.

The same is for Fibonacci grids.

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EUR/USD Intraday Technical Analysis & Trade Recommendation January 13, 2012

EUR/USD is having a strong downtrend these days inside the marked blue bearish channel.

Last Monday Support level 1.2666 held the price above prevented further decline of the pair and pushed the pair up to 1.2810.

On Wednesday, we witnessed another decline to visit support level 1.2666 which showed bullish presence again.

Yesterday we expected a double buttom reversal pattern formation with low at 1.2666 and neckline at 1.2810 which was confirmed with closure above the neckline, targetting 1.2945.

Area between 1.2920 - 1.2945 is a strong resistance which is the upper limit of the bearish channel, Fibonacci level 61.8% & the target of the possible double buttom.

In order to benefit from the expected double buttom level, We bought around 1.2730 with final TP at 1.2945 as suggested yesterday, not forgetting profits taken each 70 pips to avoid price reversal.

Based on the previous analysis

For those who took the original trade yesterday early we are waiting for the final TP at 1.2945, for those who didn't, buying at retest of the neckline at 1.2810-1.2830 is considered good

The final TP will be at 1.2945 with SL break of the low at 1.2666.

In order to follow the main downtrend, SELLING around 1.2929-1.2945 will be good with TP at 1.2855, 1.2805, 1.2745 then 1.2670 with SL daily closure above 1.2950.

 

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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 12, 2012

GBP/JPY is still developing impulse wave C of medium term downtrend (colored light green in the chart) that started from 122.71, and inside this wave on smaller scale there are three subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), and impulse subwave C is developing from 119.05. This wave has been confirmed as it broke below the top of wave A - 118.20.

The immediate supports are Fibonacci expansions off 122.71-118.20-119.05, 119.05-117.66-117.83.

Supports:

- 116.95 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 116.44 = objective point (OP)
- 116.26 = COP
- 115.58 = expanded objective point (XOP)

If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down from 119.05 - this wave is not developed yet, so no resistances are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving down, so it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (15-25 pips above the current prices).

Read more on how to trade with Fibonacci levels.

 

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EUR/USD Intraday Technical analysis 2012-01-11

The spot rate is currently testing the intermediate resistance of its medium term bearish channel in 1.2810 suggesting a decline. However a break of these levels would allow it to reach the upper limit of its channel to 1.3010.

According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the spot rate will have broken its resistance in 1.2810 with a 1st objective of 1.2870, then 1.2890. A break in 1.2790 would invalidate this scenario.

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GOLD Intraday Technical analysis 2012-01-10

The gold is currently testing the upper limit of its medium term bearish channel in 1625 and seems to initiate a decline. However a break of these levels would free up significant potential and initiate a bullish trend.

According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the gold will have broken its resistance in 1625 with a 1st objective of 1635, then 1640. A break in 1623 would invalidate this scenario.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/47783/?x=OUE

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