EUR/USD:Technical Analysis and Intraday Trading Recommendations for April 20, 2012

Pivot Point: 1.3110.

Time Frame: H4



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Trading Recommendations:

Intraday Forecast
According to previous events, the price is still located between 1.3305 and 1.3170.

Buy-deals are recommended above 1.3230 with the targets seen at 1.329 and 1.335 levels.
Below 1.32 look for further downside pace with the first target seen at 1.3153 and 1.3025 levels.

Overview:

Long Term: Two Weeks..
The EUR/USD pair has broken the resistance level and turned towards the support level near the last week's point 1.3110 (March 16, 2012). Therefore, the pair has already formed a strong support at 1.3110. Moreover, having failed to close below 1.31, the pair started showing a bullish market at this level. It is necessary to mention that these levels coincide with strong levels for bulls on H4 chart; the pair has also formed a strong support at the level 1.311. So the pair will move upwards which is a convincing fact; the structure of the upside movement looks as non-corrective indicating a bullish opportunity above 1.3110. This can be a good sign for Buy-deals above 1.3110 with the first target at 1.33 initiating an uptrend in order to continue the bullish mood towards the point 1.317 and further to 1.3300. However, it should also be noted that the price is still between 1.3390 and 1.32, as the RSI and the last strong resistance level are still able to begin a downtrend at this level. So the market indicates a bearish opportunity at the level 1.3305 on H4 chart with the first target 1.317 (Weekly Pivot Point) and continues towards 1.31.

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis for April 18, 2012

Weekly Pivot Point: 1.5985.

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GBP/USD:

• Resistance: 1.6060. (Sell below this level).
• Support: 1.5600. (Buy above this level).
  

Trading Recommendations:

According to the previous events, the price is still located between levels 1.5800 and 1.5960.

BUY-deals are recommended higher than the 1.56 level with targets at levels 1.59 and 1.6.
The descending movement will probably take place lower than the 1.6060 level with the first targets at levels 1.59, 1.5855 and 1.57.

Overview:

It should be noted that the market revealed the signs of instability. The trend movement was controversial as it took place in a narrow sideways channel. Concerning previous events, the price is still between the levels 1.58 and 1.596, so it is recommended to be cautious while making deals in this area. Therefore, it is necessary to wait till the sideways channel is passed through. Then, the market will probably indicate the signs of a bullish trend. In other words, BUY-deals are recommended higher than the 1.56 level with its first target at the level of 1.5875. From this point the pair is likely to begin the ascending movement to the point 1.59 and further to the level 1.6. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.6060, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the strong resistance level 1.6020. In this regard, SELL-deals are recommended lower than the 1.6 level with the first target at 1.59. It is possible that the pair will turn downwards continuing the development of the bearish trend to the level 1.57.

Definition (s):

Range I – A long-term means a reversion strategy that looks to go against strong divergence from the pair’s average value. It will typically hold trades for an extended period of time and is one of the slower moving trading strategies.
Range II– Like Breakout 2, uses sentiment as a filter for its trades. It will use a simple oscillator range trading strategy but only take the trading signals if SSI is not at extremes. It is fairly short-term in nature and will tend to trade very little during times of strong trending moves. It is likewise one of the most volatility-sensitive trading systems and will tend to do poorly during times of sharp currency moves.

Observation (s):

Please check out the market volatility before investing, as the sight price may have already been reached and scenarios become invalidate.
Stop Loss should NEVER exceed your maximum exposure amounts.

EUR/JPY on Crossroads, Hold on Shorts 2012-04-18

Technical Outlook:
EUR/JPY structure is presenting 2 possible options. 1) The rally of the wave 5 from 97.00 to 111.00 correcting in 3 waves which can extend towards 103.00 and 101.00 levels. 2) The 3 wave downswing might have ended below 104.00 levels; presently the single currency is attempting to reach a new high, as shown in the chart setup below. Until the measured resistance at 107.50 holds at the same level, prices are expected to fall down. Please, consider the Chart Setup and Recommendations below.



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Chart Setup:
Immediate resistance is located at 107.50 as it was mentioned yesterday. But it is necessary to concern the fact that EUR/JPY has passed through all retracement levels acting as resistance from 106.30/50 levels. Currently prices are testing 107.00 levels and are likely to break down to upside. It is hereby suggested to re-consider the trading strategy in case 107.30/50 levels are broken today. The resistances are seen at 107.50 and 111.00 levels and supports are at 102.00, 99.20 and 98.00 respectively. You can find two recommended trading strategies below.
Trade Recommendations:
1. Sold @ 105.00, Stop @ 107.50, Target1 @ 102.50, Target2 @ 101.00
2. If stopped out today, it is recommended to: Buy @ 105.50/70, Stop @ 104.50, Target above 111.00.

EUR/JPY Retraces, Ready to Fall - Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations 2012-04-17

Technical Outlook:
Structurally, EUR/JPY remains in a downtrend shown as Line of Resistance below. This line was broken earlier when the prices rallied from 97.00 to 111.00. The current situation shows that a huge retracement is underway; it can even be the beginning of a fresh downtrend. As one can see below, the measured levels for the retracement to end are 103.20 and 101.80 respectively. Resistances are well placed now at 107.50 and 111.00 respectively, where as Supports come in at 101.70 (S1), 99.20 S2) and 97.00 (S3). It is recommended to remain short.



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Chart Setup:
The rally from 97.00 to 111.00 was in 5 waves. Retracement of this rally should take place in 3 waves down, and it looks like the 3rd wave resumed at 107.20 last Friday. This wave is projected to complete at 101.80 levels. The most probable count from here on should be towards 101.80 and we expect it to reach by the last week of April or in early May. 107.50 is the immediate resistance now.
Bottom Line: lower from here.
Trading Recommendation: Issued Yesterday
Sell @ 105.00, Stop @ 107.50, Target1 @ 103.20, Target2 @ 101,80.

AUD/USD Elliott Wave Count for April 16, 2012

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AUD/USD Elliott Wave
Last week the AUD/USD has finished 1 wave (coloured blue) in the point 1.0450. During the Friday's trading day we could observe the development of the 2 wave (coloured blue). We could observe the descending movement in the Europe and New York session price broke 50 EMA support and pushed to 1.0360 level. During the early Asian session the AUD/USD pair continued the bearish mood and we could see price at the 1.0310 level. We can consider this move as the end of 2 wave (coloured blue). Presently we can observe the beginning of the 3 wave (coloured blue). In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (1.0224-1.0450-1.0310); the First Take Profit at 1.0623 (138.2% of wave 1) and Second Take Profit at 1.0676 (161.8% of wave 1). For Stop Loss we can use the invalidation point at 1.0224. Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the U.S Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m, Empire State Manufacturing Index, TIC Long-Term Purchases, Business Inventories m/m and FOMC Member Pianalto Speaks that can affect the rate of the pair
Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 1.0295 (S2) 1.0332 (S1) 1.0355 (PP) 1.0392 (R1) 1.0429 (R2) 1.0452 (R3) 1.0489
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules, today the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 1.0350 with Stop Loss at 1.0224, Take Profit 1 at 1.0623 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0676 are recommended.

EUR/JPY Rally Continues. Move Stop Loss 2012-04-13

Technical Outlook: EUR/JPY is expected to continue its rally up to 107.50. Furthermore, the bullish momentum will possibly end near 109.99 and 110.00 levels. For this week Buy-deals are still considered as relevant. The point 105.00 is considered as support level while resistance levels are seen in ponits 109.50, 110.00 and 111.00. Consider the long positions and refer to Trade Recommendations below. Show full picture Chart Setup: We would like to remind that the recent fall from 111.00 to 105.00 levels can be used in 2 ways. 1. It could have completed the retracement of the large upswing that started from 97.00 levels up to 111.00 levels. And now it is moving towards new highs above 111.00. 2. The first downleg of retracement has been completed at 105.00 levels, the current upswing is a counter trend rally which could last up to 109.00-110.00 levels and then drop down towards 102.00 levels. Taking into account both opportunities, Buy-deals are recommended targetting 107.50 levels up to 109.00-110.00 levels. This strategy remains relevant and the resistance area as shown in the form of an arrow, comes at 109.00 levels onwards. Bottom Line: Stay long for now. Trade Recommendations: Issued early this week Buy @ 105.60/80, Stop @ 105.00, Target Open. Move stop loss to break even levels today. We do not have any risk now...!

EUR/JPY - Hold on to Long Positions - Tehnical Analysis and Trading Recommendations 2012-04-12

Technical Outlook:
As discussed yesterday, a badly needed rally is being materialized now. Please notice, that the rally has just begun, the immediate upside target is the 107.50 level. This rally could further extend to the 109.00 and 110.00 levels. 105.50 will act as a support now. Hold on to long positions taken yesterday, we shall suggest to move stops by tomorrow.



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Chart Setup:
As indicated above, we are in the buy zone of the longer term dropping resistance line and in the sell zone of the intermediary uptrend line that starts from the 97.00 level. The prices would at least incline to test the back side of the uptrend line, indicated by arrow - at prices 109.00 to 110.00, before they decide to reverse. Our recommended BUY has materialized and it is still suggested to stay long. Resistance on the Daily charts is placed at the 111.00 level, while the 105.50 level will provide support now.
Bottom Line: Higher.
Trading Recommendations: Issued on April 11, 2012
Buy at 105.60/80, Stop at 105.00, Target Open, Minimum Expectations are 109.00 - 110.00.