In a daily graph the GBP/USD is bouncing off after it failed to break the support level near 1.5960.
Earlier on a daily graph the GBP/USD has formed a Three Black Crows candlestick combination, which indicates downside movement.
This candlestick combination has formed after the pair failed to break the resistance level near 1.6400, which means that the bulls could not solidify here. Further the bears started to increase their influence.
Break of the support level 1.5960 will prove this viewpoint. In this case downside movement to 1.5750, where Fibonacci correction level 61.8 is also located, should be expected.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss should be placed slightly above the 1.6400 level. Since a break of this level will target the pair to 1.6450
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/25867/?x=OUE
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Thursday, March 31, 2011
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
Oil review for 29/03/2011
On Tuesday oil futures grew amid doubts over resumption of oil export from Libya and stock market uprise.
On Tuesday oil futures showed growth as doubts about Libyan oil export have been increasing and stock market has been up. By the end of NYMEX trades the quotations of April futures on low-sulfur oil rose by 81 cent (0.8%) up to USD 104,79 per barrel. At the same time ICE trades resulted in Brent oil prices growing by 46 cent (0.4%) up to USD 115,26 per barrel.
Crude oil prices have been rising amid uncertainties over how soon Libyan oil will be back on the market. According to Libyan rebels, the country may well start exporting oil within a week.
However, there are persistent doubts about such fast returning of Libyan oil to the market, particularly with the situation in other parts of the region remaining quite unstable. Almost all Libyan export of nearly 1.3 mln. barrels a day ceased due to the national conflict and the sanctions imposed on it by the West.
Crude oil prices have been soaring since the beginning of the Libyan conflict which broke up in mid-February to reach its high USD 106.95 per barrel in the beginning of March. Earlier on Tuesday the very prospect of Libyan oil to be back on the market pushed the prices down.
Yet, some market watchers suppose that the prices have reached their high and now they expect them to decline, especially in case Libyan oil export is resumed. Additionally, oil prices were supported by hiking American stocks which contributed much to hopes for higher US demand for oil.
On Wednesday the Ministry of Energy is to publish its weekly data on the oil reserves and petroleum products of the USA.
Analysts expect oil reserves to increase by 1.5 mln. barrels, reducing thus gas reserves by 1.7 mln. barrels and distillate reserves, including residual oil and diesel fuel, by 400 000 barrels.
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/25777/?x=OUE
On Tuesday oil futures showed growth as doubts about Libyan oil export have been increasing and stock market has been up. By the end of NYMEX trades the quotations of April futures on low-sulfur oil rose by 81 cent (0.8%) up to USD 104,79 per barrel. At the same time ICE trades resulted in Brent oil prices growing by 46 cent (0.4%) up to USD 115,26 per barrel.
Crude oil prices have been rising amid uncertainties over how soon Libyan oil will be back on the market. According to Libyan rebels, the country may well start exporting oil within a week.
However, there are persistent doubts about such fast returning of Libyan oil to the market, particularly with the situation in other parts of the region remaining quite unstable. Almost all Libyan export of nearly 1.3 mln. barrels a day ceased due to the national conflict and the sanctions imposed on it by the West.
Crude oil prices have been soaring since the beginning of the Libyan conflict which broke up in mid-February to reach its high USD 106.95 per barrel in the beginning of March. Earlier on Tuesday the very prospect of Libyan oil to be back on the market pushed the prices down.
Yet, some market watchers suppose that the prices have reached their high and now they expect them to decline, especially in case Libyan oil export is resumed. Additionally, oil prices were supported by hiking American stocks which contributed much to hopes for higher US demand for oil.
On Wednesday the Ministry of Energy is to publish its weekly data on the oil reserves and petroleum products of the USA.
Analysts expect oil reserves to increase by 1.5 mln. barrels, reducing thus gas reserves by 1.7 mln. barrels and distillate reserves, including residual oil and diesel fuel, by 400 000 barrels.
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/25777/?x=OUE
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
EUR/USD analytical review with a forecast for March 29, 2011
On Monday the euro got support after the comments of ECB president Jean-Claud Trichet, which strengthened the expectations of eurozone rate hike, thus moving aside concerns about the European debt.
The trading closed in favour of the European currency that grew 90 pips versus the dollar; volatility of the trading amounted to 139 pips.
Fundamental review:
As for fundamental data, it should be mentioned that consumer spending in this February advanced more than expected, which indicates higher income of population.
According to the data, consumer spending in February rose by 0.7% compared to January. This was mostly caused by personal income up 0.3%; however, savings growth rate declined to 5.8%.
Economists expected spending to advance in February by 0.6%, income – by 0.4%.
In his speech Trichet confirmed his position concerning interest rate. He mentioned that ECB price stability is highly expected and called everyone to improve control of eurozone xompetitiveness.
Technical analysis:
Trading is located in the price channel. Its lower limit touches yesterday’s low 1.4020 while it upper limit is located near March 25 and 28 highs – 1.4193 and 1.4115.
The first support level at the moment is the 1.4066 level; if it is broken the decline might continue to 1.4141 and further to 1.4019.
In case the growth is resumed the EUR/USD will have to pass the 1.4111 level; further upside movement might be targeted at 1.4141 and further to 1.4186.
The Bollinger Bands are parallel to each other and indicating high liquidity on the market. The trading is located in the upper part of the channel and the medium line at 1.4987 is providing dynamic support to the pair.
The MACD is near zero, which indicates uncertainty among buyers and sellers about further direction of the pair.
Show full picture
Today’s recommendations:
Support levels: 1.4066, 1.4042, 1.4019
Resistance levels: 1.4141, 1.4141, 1.4186
Today I recommend buying the pair in 1-hour timeframe after it closes above the 1.4089 with T/P 1.4149 and S/L 1.4075.
Sell the pair in 1-hour timeframe after it closes below the 1.4064 level with T/P 1.4018 and S/L 1.4078.
Performed by Maxim Magdalinin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/25727/?x=OUE
The trading closed in favour of the European currency that grew 90 pips versus the dollar; volatility of the trading amounted to 139 pips.
Fundamental review:
As for fundamental data, it should be mentioned that consumer spending in this February advanced more than expected, which indicates higher income of population.
According to the data, consumer spending in February rose by 0.7% compared to January. This was mostly caused by personal income up 0.3%; however, savings growth rate declined to 5.8%.
Economists expected spending to advance in February by 0.6%, income – by 0.4%.
In his speech Trichet confirmed his position concerning interest rate. He mentioned that ECB price stability is highly expected and called everyone to improve control of eurozone xompetitiveness.
Technical analysis:
Trading is located in the price channel. Its lower limit touches yesterday’s low 1.4020 while it upper limit is located near March 25 and 28 highs – 1.4193 and 1.4115.
The first support level at the moment is the 1.4066 level; if it is broken the decline might continue to 1.4141 and further to 1.4019.
In case the growth is resumed the EUR/USD will have to pass the 1.4111 level; further upside movement might be targeted at 1.4141 and further to 1.4186.
The Bollinger Bands are parallel to each other and indicating high liquidity on the market. The trading is located in the upper part of the channel and the medium line at 1.4987 is providing dynamic support to the pair.
The MACD is near zero, which indicates uncertainty among buyers and sellers about further direction of the pair.
Show full picture
Today’s recommendations:
Support levels: 1.4066, 1.4042, 1.4019
Resistance levels: 1.4141, 1.4141, 1.4186
Today I recommend buying the pair in 1-hour timeframe after it closes above the 1.4089 with T/P 1.4149 and S/L 1.4075.
Sell the pair in 1-hour timeframe after it closes below the 1.4064 level with T/P 1.4018 and S/L 1.4078.
Performed by Maxim Magdalinin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/25727/?x=OUE
Monday, March 28, 2011
EUR/USD Weekly Forecast 28th - April 1st / 2011
WEEKLY FORECAST :
Last week the EUR/USD failed to test the 1.4250 level, it looks like it provided a strong Resistance for this pair last week; this level
caused the pair to go down and close below the last week's opening price. However, if we look at the 10 periode Simple Moving Avarage, the pair
is still trading above that Moving Avarage and the slope is still going up; it means the downside movement is only a retracement. For next week we predict
the pair to test the Fibonacci Support 50% at the 1.4050 level, if this level is broken the mark 1.4000 will be the next target for this pair.
However, if the pair tests 1.4050 afterwards, this level can provide a strong support and the pair goes up again, the mark 1.4100 will be the target for the pair and 1.4150 will be the second target for the EUR/USD for next week.
Performed by Arief Makmur, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/25625/?x=OUE
Last week the EUR/USD failed to test the 1.4250 level, it looks like it provided a strong Resistance for this pair last week; this level
caused the pair to go down and close below the last week's opening price. However, if we look at the 10 periode Simple Moving Avarage, the pair
is still trading above that Moving Avarage and the slope is still going up; it means the downside movement is only a retracement. For next week we predict
the pair to test the Fibonacci Support 50% at the 1.4050 level, if this level is broken the mark 1.4000 will be the next target for this pair.
However, if the pair tests 1.4050 afterwards, this level can provide a strong support and the pair goes up again, the mark 1.4100 will be the target for the pair and 1.4150 will be the second target for the EUR/USD for next week.
Performed by Arief Makmur, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/25625/?x=OUE
Sunday, March 27, 2011
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Friday, March 25, 2011
GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - March 25, 2011
The GBP/JPY is developing corrective subwave B (colored magenta in the chart) within wave A of medium term uptrend - colored royal blue in the chart. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 126.02-133.04, 122.49-133.04, and expansions off 133.04-131.19-131.75.
Supports:
- 129.90 = objective point (OP)
- 129.53 = .50 ret
- 129.01 = .382 ret
- 128.76-70 = confluence area of expanded objective point (XOP) and .618 ret
- etc.
If the price keeps advancing the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 131.75-130.28, 133.04-130.28.
Resistances:
- 130.84 = .382 ret
- 131.01 = .50 ret
- 131.19 = .618 ret
- 131.33 = .382 ret
- etc.
Show full picture
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term has reversed to the downside it's preferable to look for shorts when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (5-10 pips above the current price), or into the overbought area (80-110 pips above the current price - this rougly corresponds to 131.33 Fib resistance level).
Read more on how to apply Fibonacci studies to calculate price targets.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/25545/?x=OUE
Supports:
- 129.90 = objective point (OP)
- 129.53 = .50 ret
- 129.01 = .382 ret
- 128.76-70 = confluence area of expanded objective point (XOP) and .618 ret
- etc.
If the price keeps advancing the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 131.75-130.28, 133.04-130.28.
Resistances:
- 130.84 = .382 ret
- 131.01 = .50 ret
- 131.19 = .618 ret
- 131.33 = .382 ret
- etc.
Show full picture
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term has reversed to the downside it's preferable to look for shorts when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (5-10 pips above the current price), or into the overbought area (80-110 pips above the current price - this rougly corresponds to 131.33 Fib resistance level).
Read more on how to apply Fibonacci studies to calculate price targets.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/25545/?x=OUE
Thursday, March 24, 2011
EUR/USD Bearish Outlook, March 24, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
EUR/USD
The Euro-United States dollar pair from its record high at 1.4247 has been corrected to the 1.4050 level. At this moment it is negotiating on the price of 1.4130, The resistance level of 1.4200 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement line could serve as a short input signal to continue the trend that had started even the weekly support line around the 1.3750 level.
We mention that expectations about what near future increase interest rates in Europe, the pair relocated back to 1.4000, with a forecast of $ 1.4300 as strong resistance.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/25503/?x=OUE
The Euro-United States dollar pair from its record high at 1.4247 has been corrected to the 1.4050 level. At this moment it is negotiating on the price of 1.4130, The resistance level of 1.4200 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement line could serve as a short input signal to continue the trend that had started even the weekly support line around the 1.3750 level.
We mention that expectations about what near future increase interest rates in Europe, the pair relocated back to 1.4000, with a forecast of $ 1.4300 as strong resistance.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/25503/?x=OUE
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