USD/CHF: Time Zones to Swing. 2011-11-10

Forecast

Mourad El Keddani

USD/CHF: Swing Formulas.
 
Take the last four strong levels (Red lines at the chart):

• Swing Bearish Trade = (Sum of Resistances ) / (Total of Resistances)
• Swing Bearish Trade = (0.9030 + 0.9150 + 0.9225 + 0.9300) / 4
• Swing Bearish Trade = 0.9176

• The market will indicates a bearish opportunity on level of 0.9176, at the Fibonacci time zones between November 10^th, 2011 and November 15^th, 2011.

Weekly Pivot Point = 0.8945

• Take profit should be placed at Pivot Point.

The value of 100% Fibonacci Retracement is: High = 0.9315 on H4 chart.

• The best location for placing a stop loss should be above 0.9315.
  

It should be noted that:
Take Profit = + 231 pips.
Stop Loss = - 139 pips.
Take Profit  = 5/3 * Stop Loss.

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Fundamental Analysis, November, 09/ 2011

Fundamental analysis

Gerardo Porras

European shares fall back into the session on Wednesday, in a move that was expected, given the lack of definition of the political crisis in Greece and Italy.
On Greece, the problem brings a drag of months, and while the former leader Papandreou resigned and assumes no new government, creating a sense of anarchy at a time when continuity is defined or not the country in the Euro.
In the case of Italy, their leader Bernusconi announced his resignation on Tuesday generated a significant increase in the stock of the old continent, but ultimately such waiver was not submitted. A further surprise in the middle of the number of unusual events very special this year for the markets.
This lack of definition is hitting squarely in the minds of investors, who once sought refuge in the dollar. Therefore, all major currencies are giving strength to the dollar, while the Dow Jones index futures trading at sharply lower at the opening hours of the NYSE.

The Euro is naturally the currency most affected in these hours, but also the Swiss franc and Australian dollar signs of weakness. The British pound, meanwhile, still has the dimension of 1.60, which, however, momentarily lost in the midday in Europe. The yen, which had strengthened over the past two days, fell slightly against the dollar, but without losing its medium-term uptrend.
If the economic, financial, and social policy in the euro continued to decline for the next few weeks we will see a devaluation to u $ s 1.3000 .- could be the first announcement of a major collapse that would threaten the political unity of Europe and the survival of their beloved son, the Euro.
It also falls on oil, which traded at $ 95.55 a barrel at the moment, losing two dollars from the high of the day.
For the U.S. session, hopefully, as a fact of importance, the weekly oil inventories in the U.S., at 10:30 Eastern.
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EUR/USD Intraday Technical analysis 2011-11-08

Technical analysis

Albert Fitoussi

The spot rate approaches to the upper limit of its medium-term bearish channel in 1.3790 suggesting a decline. However a break of these levels would free up significant potential and initiate a new trend.
According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the spot rate will have broken its resistance in 1.3790 with a 1st objective of 1.3850, then 1.3890. A break in 1.3770 would invalidate this scenario.

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EUR/JPY: Weekly Technical Levels for November 7th -- 11th, 2011.

Technical analysis

Arief Makmur

 

Weekly Technical Levels:

Time Frame: H1.

Drag your Fibonacci retracement levels from the lower to the higher of the last week (31^st October -- 4^th November, 2011) in order to determine low and high price.
Average = (Higher - Lower) / 2
Average = 109.01.

• The value of 50% Fibonacci retracement levels is: 109.01.
• 106.00 will be formed a support.
• 108.63 will be formed a resistance.
• Volatility is 5527 so the market has called for a high volatile.
• It should be noted that the price has still been trapped between 106.50 and 108.63.

Tip (s):

R3 and S3 are good indication for the maximum range for extremely volatile days but can be exceeded occasionally.
Pivot lines work well in sideways markets as prices will most likely range between the R1 and S1 line.
In a strong trend, price will be low through a pivot point line and keep going.
If there is significant news to influence the market price may go straight through R1 or S1 and reach even R2 & R3 or S2 & S3

Observation (s):

• If the strength of the trend for pair is an uptrend, then the strength of the currency: EUR is an uptrend and JPY is a downtrend.
• Most of traders use the Fibonacci retracement to determine accurate psychology level of support and resistance.
• Volatility Formulas: Variation = Average * (Higher - Lower).
  
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EUR/USD Intraday Breakout for November 4th, 2011.

Forecast

Mourad El Keddani

 

Pivot Point: 1.3774.

EUR/USD (Breakout):

• Resistance: 1.3870. (Buy above this level).
• Support: 1.3780. (Sell below this level).
  

It should be noted that the market was not stable and trend was not also so clear, aswell according to previous events, the price has still been trapped between 1.3780 and 1.3870 so it is of the wisdom to be neutral at this area. Therefore first step is wait for a period of tight sideway range market before breakouts. Then, it will probably that the market is going to start showing the signs of bullish market (Can expect explosive breakout). In other words, it will be a good sign to buy above above 1.3870 with a first target of 1.4 and price breakout and it'll climb towards 1.41. However, If the the pair breaks 1.3780 and closure below it, hence the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below 1.3780 then the support will be become a resistance, for that it will a good sign to sell below 1.3780 with a first target of at 1.3690 and it will call for downtrend in order to continue bearish towards 1.3606 (0.0% of Fibonacci retracement levels on H1 chart), in order to form new double bottom at this level.

Intraday Technical levels ((4th of November 2011)):

R3:1.4091
R2:1.3972
R1:1.3893
PP:1.3774
S1:1.3695
S2:1.3576
S3:1.3497

Definition (s):

Breakout strategy: it's one of the best strategy has ever seen, but it so difficult and too complex. (Most important to find the trend power from Y = aX + b)
Breakout1 – Waits for a slowdown in volatility and then trades in the direction of the subsequent breakout. It is very short-term in nature, uses fixed stop losses and profit targets, and works best in fast-moving markets.
Breakout2 – A breakout strategy that looks to go long when a currency pair breaks above its 24-hour trading range, short on a break below. Unlike a raw channel breakout strategy,
However, Breakout2 uses an SSI trend filter to confirm whether or not price is likely to continue in the direction of the breakout. It opens a trade with five units and staggers entries and exits according to a pair’s Average True Range.

Observation (s):

Please check out the market volatility before investing, because the sight price may have already been reached and scenarios become invalidate.
Stop Loss should NEVER exceed your maximum exposure amounts.

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EUR/USD: Numerical Analysis (R3 & S3 Formulas).

Forecast

Mourad El Keddani

Use time frame of H1 or/and H4 (It's more precise) to determine the Resistance 3 (R3) and the Support 3 (S3).

Tip: For determining accurate Resistances and Supports, it should be used an average time frame (H1 or/and H4) aswell it also should applied Fractals' indicator.
Steps: on your MetaTrader4 (MT4), you can click on the 3rd tap: Insert / Indicators / Bill Williams / Fractals.

Apply Formulas:

R3: Resistance 3 = 1.4020.
S3: Support 3 = 1.3450.


Function = (R3 - (R3 - S3)) * 38%

The market will indicate a bearish opportunity on level of: (R3 - (Function / 100)) = 1.3977.
The market will indicate a bullish opportunity on level of: (S3 + (Function / 100)) = 1.3503.

It should be noted that:
(Resistance.3 + Support.3) / 2 = 1.3740 and Pivot Point = (High + Low + Close) / 3 = 1.3736.
Therefore, pivot point will be formed a period of tight sideway range market at this level, so it is of the wisdom to be neutral at 1.3740 and don't open any positions.

Trading Recommendations:

According to previous events, the price has still been trapped between 1.35 and 1.4.

• Buy above 1.35 with a first target of 1.3740, it might resume to 1.39.
• Below 1.4 look for further downside with 1.38 and 1.3740 targets

Observation (s):

• Please check out the market volatility before investing, because the sight price may have already been reached and scenarios become invalidate.
• Stop Loss should NEVER exceed your maximum exposure amounts

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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for November 2, 2011

Wave analysis

Roman Molodiashin

AUD/USD is developing wave A of medium term downtrend (colored royal blue in the chart). Within this wave there are A, B and C subwaves (colored orange red in the chart), and subwave 4 is developing from 1.0270 against the downtrend. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0611-1.0270, 1.0752-1.0270.
Resistances:
- 1.0400 = .382 retracement
- 1.0440-54 = confluence area of .50 and .382 retracements
- 1.0481 = .618 ret
- 1.0511 = .50 ret
- 1.0568 = .618 ret
If the price keeps declining the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 0.9387-1.0752, and expansions off 1.0752-1.0506-1.0611, 1.0611-1.0270-1.0385.
Supports:
- 1.0231 = .382 ret
- 1.0213 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0174 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0070 = .50 ret
- 1.0044 = objective point (OP)
- 0.9967 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the larger wave is now moving down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or gets into the overbought area (10-30 pips above the current prices).
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