EUR/USD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-08-30

Show full picture

The spot rate has been evolving between the upper limit of its medium term bearish channel at 1.2570 and the lower limit of this one at 1.2510 for three days. It approaches now the upper limit of its channel suggesting a decline. However, a break of these levels will free a large potential and initiate a violent bullish channel.
Technical indicators provide sell signals and until the resistance is not broken, the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement.
As the spot rate approaches the upper limit of its channel then we recommend 2 scenarios: the first one is the hypothesis of a decline where we suggest selling on the level of 1.2570 with the 1st objective at 1.2510 and then at 1.2490. A breakthrough of 1.2590 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is a break of its resistance where we advise a “buy stop” which means buying the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its resistance of 1.2570 with the 1st objective at 1.2630 and then at 1.2650. A breakthrough of 1.2550 will invalidate this scenario.
Albert Fitoussi is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

GBP/USD Support and Resistance for Tuesday, 28 August, 2012

Monday, 27 August, was a regular day for the British pound. It was trading in the sideways price channel in the range of 1.5793-1.5818 and has not expressed any distinct dynamics in the regard of the further direction.
At the end of the day, the prices were placed in the areas of VAL – 1.5997 and VAH – 1.5814. The point of control POC was formed in the 1.5808.
Forecast for Today:
During today’s Asian session the British pound dropped sharply against the US dollar and then restored its positions.
In case of downtrend resumption, the first resistance level will be POC area from 22 August – 1.5797. From that level the uptrend will continue from VAL of 24 August – 1.5823 and then to the POC level of that day – 1.5861 and after that towards VAH of 24 August – 1.5897.
The most conservative longs will be up to VAL of 16 May – 1.5906.
In case the downturn continues, the first support level will be in the POC area of 21 August – 1.5760. After that the decline will extend towards POC of 16 August – 1.5737 and then to POC of 20 August – 1.5707.
The most conservative shorts will be up to POC of 14 August – 1.5690.


Show full picture


Description
POC (Point of Control) – orange horizontal line on the chart.
VAL – violet horizontal line on the chart, always below POC.
VAH – violet horizontal line on the chart, always above POC.

EUR/USD Strong Support 1. 2410 - For August 23, 2012 (Daily Strategy)

The euro benefited from the data that was published by the Federal Reserve, which made the impression that many of the members are more than willing to intervene and ease monetary policy if the U.S. economy does not recover soon. This was bad for the dollar and the euro which benefited as the result and reached the maximum of July 4 at 1.2570.
At the technical level, we note that secondary downtrend line is intact and there may be a correction of the pair to the support of 1.2410. We can visualize both of levels on the chart. Given that the pair is in a bullish mood, we recommend buying with targets 1.2570 and above 1.2650. The stop loss will place it below the support of 1.2410.



Show full picture
If you need a personal consultation, contact me via e-mail: gerardo.porras@analytics.instaforex.com
If you like my technical analysis, please vote for me, in the portal MT5.com, please login and then vote for me. Thanks.
Gerardo Porras is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels for August 22, 2012

Show full picture

Today’s Technical Level:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.2534.
Strong Resistance: 1.2528.
Original Resistance: 1.2516.
Inner Sell Area: 1.2504.
Target Inner Area: 1.2474.
Inner Buy Area: 1.2444.
Original Support: 1.2432.
Strong Support: 1.2420.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.2412.
Description:
Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.2432 and 1.2516 and is accompanied by strong support at 1.2420 and by 1.2528 as strong resistance.
If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below 1.2412 level today, this will indicate a considerable bearish strength, while if EUR/USD manages to break out and close above 1.2534 level, this will denote a high bullish strength. Alternatively, for advance traders, you can trade in a way to open BUY position at the level of 1.2444 and SELL position at 1.2504; in this case both targets should be located at the level of 1.2474.



Best regards,
Arief Makmur
Official Analyst of InstaForex Companies Group
InstaForex Companies Group
http://instaforex.com
Email : Arief.ifx.jakarta@gmail.com
Arief Makmur is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-08-21

Show full picture

As we predicted yesterday, the spot rate bounced off to the intermediate support of its medium term bullish channel at 1.5680 and approaches now the upper limit of this one at 1.5770 suggesting a decline. However, a break of these levels will free a large potential and initiate a more violent bullish trend.
Technical indicators provide buy signals but are approaching overbuy zone supporting a decline and until the resistance is not broken, the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement. Furthermore, the spot rate is breaking the superior band supporting the hypothesis of a violent movement to the upper limit of its channel.
The spot rate tests its resistance that is why we recommend 2 scenarios: the first one is the hypothesis of a decline where we suggest a sell at the level of 1.5770 with the 1st objective at 1.5710 and then at 1.5690. A breakthrough 1.5790 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is the hypothesis of a break of its resistance where we recommend a “buy stop”. We advised to buy the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its resistance of 1.5770 with the 1st objective at 1.5830 and then at 1.5850. A breakthrough 1.5750 will invalidate this scenario.
Albert Fitoussi is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.                                  

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels for August 20, 2012

Show full picture

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2390.
Strong Resistance: 1.2383.
Original Resistance: 1.2371.
Inner Sell Area: 1.2359.
Target Inner Area: 1.2330.
Inner Buy Area: 1.2301.
Original Support: 1.2289.
Strong Support: 1.2277.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.2270.

DESCRIPTION:

Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.2289 and 1.2371 and is accompanied by strong support at 1.2277 and by 1.2383 as strong resistance.
If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below a 1.2270-level today, then this will indicate considerable bearish strength, while if EUR/USD manages to break out and close above a 1.2390-level, then this will denote high bullish strength. Alternatively for advance traders, you can trade in a way to open a BUY position at the level of 1.2301 and at 1.2359 – a SELL position, in this case both targets should be located at the level of 1.2330.

Best regards,
Arief Makmur is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

Why VIX Is So Low, And What Comes Next?

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/17/2012 12:39 -0400

• Exchange Traded Fund
• SPY
• Volatility

VIX is nothing more than the market's implied 'factor' that makes the supply-demand of options prices fit with model-based parameters. In simple terms it measures the market's expectations for volatility (up or down moves - not just down) going forward. Empirically it has a relationship with realized volatility - how much the market actually moved up or down relative to what VIX expected - and professionals will use various 'scalping' techniques to lock in day-to-day gains from the difference between the market's actual movement and what options prices expected. To wit: the current expectations of central bank action, just as it did in 11/2011 (global CB action) and 1/2012 (LTRO1), has caused a slow steady leak higher in stocks which crushes realized volatility - currently at record lows. This in turn drags implied vol lower as the 'scalpers' sell vol to capture the difference. With September 'events' around the corner, we suspect there are only a few more days before realized vol picks up and implicitly implied vol momentum scalpers are squeezed out again.
SPY (the S&P 500 ETF) Realized vol (orange) is following the same collapse path (red ovals) as it did in LTRO1 lead-up and the global CB action in November. Clearly the market is not willing to chase realized vol all the way down and maintains a premium (lower pane) which it appears to be up against here...

The lower pane above is the critical part to understanding market expectations for a risk pick up.

Clarifying: VIX 'expects' a certain move per day and as long as the move is smaller than 'expected' then a daily profit can be garnered... of course this works every day day in and day out until it doesn't and the market (and realized vol) rips your arms and legs off (as we show with read arrows below)...


The bottom-line is that a low VIX must be compared to its realized vol to judge real exuberance/complacency... but we note that there is a floor to the premium vol sellers are willing to accept to take on the rip-your-arms-and-legs-off probability. While implied vol provides insight into expectations of risk ahead, it is the premium to realized vol that tells you the real story and currently that premium remains very high - in other words, the market IS expecting considerably more volatility ahead (lower pane of first chart above).
Charts: Bloomberg