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Friday, December 30, 2011

EUR/JPY Intraday Technical Analysis & Trade Recommendation December 30, 2011


Fundamental analysis

Mohamed Samy




EUR/JPY is now trending down with successive lower lows & lower highs.
Two weeks ago, We had two significant technical events which are the break of the mid-term uptrend line on Monday & Break of the support level 102.50 on Tuesday.
Last Week, Retracement was expected towards 102.50-103.25 which was mentioned as a good SELL entry area.
It's important to mention that the pair broke the support level 100.75 which was last October's low.
SL should be lowered to be daily closure above 101.00 & remaining TP levels should be waited for as 100.00 is the first support level near to the pair price.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/47115/?x=OUE
InstaForex

Thursday, December 29, 2011

GOLD Intraday Technical analysis 2011-12-29


Technical analysis

Albert Fitoussi




The gold broke the intermediate support of its medium term bearish channel in 1580 leading to an acceleration. A pull back on these levels is expected  before a resumption of bearish.
According to previous events, the market indicates a bearish opportunity on the levels of 1580 with a 1st objective of 1570, then 1560. A break in 1582 would invalidate this scenario.
 

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/47017/?x=OUE
InstaForex

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

GOLD Intraday Technical analysis 2011-12-28


Technical analysis

Albert Fitoussi




The gold approach to the lower limit of its medium term bearish channel in 1585 suggesting a rebound. However a break of these levels would entail a bearish channel more violent.
According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity on the levels of 1585 with a 1st objective of 1600, then 1605. A break in 1582 would invalidate this scenario.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/46937/?x=OUE
InstaForex

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis & Trade Recommendation December 27, 2011


Technical analysis

Mohamed Samy




Last Friday, GBP/USD had consolidation range between 1.5646 - 1.5725.
Our view for the pair is still bearish as we we had strong bearish reaction after hiting the resistance level at 1.5770 & the pair formed a Head & Shoulders reversal pattern manifested more clearly on the 1H chart.
Yesterday we suggested SELLING the pair at the resistance level 1.5646 which is the lower limit of the broken consolidation range at 1.5646 which is also the neckline of the confirmed Head & Shoulders reversal pattern.
It's important to notice that we have another intraday resistance level at 1.5665 which is being tested right now.
Today our suggested SHORT position was triggered short time ago with TP at 1.5605,1.5555 then 1.5505 & SL should be 4H closure above 1.5700.
The current price is appropriate for catching this trade with the same TP & SL.
http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/46899/?x=OUE 
InstaForex

Monday, December 26, 2011

GBP/USD: Technical Analysis for December 26, 2011.

Technical analysis

Mourad El Keddani


Pivot Point: 1.5625.

GBP/USD:
  • Resistance: 1.5774. (Sell below this level).
  • Support: 1.5434. (Buy above this level).

It should be noted that the market was not stable and trend was not also so clear (It was tight sideway range), as well according to previous events, the price has still been trapped between 1.5774 and 1.5434 so it is of the wisdom to be careful at this area. Therefore first step is wait for a period of tight sideway range market before breakouts. Then, it will probably that the market is going to start showing the signs of bullish market. In other words, it will be a good sign to buy above 1.5434 (Support 3) with a first target of 1.5505 and it'll climb towards 1.5625 (Pivot point). However, If the the pair could not break 1.5774, hence the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below 1.5774 then the level will be act really as strong resistance, for that it will a good sign to sell below 1.579 with a first target of 1.57 and it will call for downtrend in order to continue bearish towards 1.5630.

Intraday Technical levels ((26th of December 2011)):

R3:1.5790
R2:1.5748
R1:1.5667
PP:1.5625
S1:1.5544
S2:1.5502
S3:1.5421

Definition (s):


Range I – A long-term mean reversion strategy that looks to go against strong divergence from the pair’s average value. It will typically hold trades for an extended period of time and is one of the slower moving trading strategies.
Range II– Like Breakout 2, uses sentiment as a filter for its trades. It will use a simple oscillator range trading strategy but only take the trading signals if SSI is not at extremes. It is fairly short-term in nature and will tend to trade very little during times of strong trending moves. It is likewise one of the most volatility-sensitive trading systems and will tend to do poorly during times of sharp currency moves.

Observation (s):

Please check out the market volatility before investing, because the sight price may have already been reached and scenarios become invalidate.
Stop Loss should NEVER exceed your maximum exposure amounts.
InstaForex

Thursday, December 22, 2011

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Level For December 22nd / 2011


Technical analysis

Arief Makmur




TODAY  TECHNICAL  LEVEL :

Breakout BUY Level : 1.3102.
Strong Resistance : 1.3094.
Original Resistance : 1.3082.
Inner Sell Area : 1.3070.
Target Inner Area : 1.3039.
Inner Buy Area : 1.3008.
Original Support : 1.2996
Strong Support : 1.2983.
Breakout SELL Level : 1.2976.

DESCRIPTION :

Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.2996 and 1.3082 is accompanied by a strong support at 1.2983 and 1.3094 for the strong resistance; If today the EUR/USD can break out and close below the 1.2976 level then this indicates considerable Bearish strength, while if the EUR/USD today can break out and close above the 1.3102 level then this indicates considerable Bullish strength. Alternatively you can trade in a way to open BUY position at the level of 1.3008 and 1.3070 for SELL position in which case both targets are located at the 1.3039 level.
http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/46537/?x=OUE
InstaForex

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

EUR/USD: Theory on Numerical Analysis. 2011-12-21


Forecast

Mourad El Keddani



Use time frame of M15 to determine the lower and the higher price of yesterday, because it's more precise.



Show full picture

Tip: Some traders make a mistake.
The Fibonacci retracement is VALID only if the price movements on daily basis, it should be between lower and highest price of that day.

Tuesday's historic (20th of December 2011).
Open: 1.2997
High:1.3131
Low :1.2993
Close :1.3180

Function = (High - (High - Low)) * 38%.
The market will indicate a bullish opportunity on level of: (Low - (Function / 100)) = 1.3065.
Pivot Point (1) = (High + Low + Close) / 3 = 1.3068.
If the price close below the pivot point on the H4 chart the market will indicate a bearish opportunity on level of 1.3025.



Take Profit Formulas:

Sometimes the market seems that it doesn't follow our forecast, therefore in order to get out spank from the market before losing your profit.
Then you have to calculate the Market Movements.
Market Movements = (High / (High + Low)) * 100

  • If Market Movements is between 50.20 and 50.40, so it should close your position after 1H:30M (Around 40 pips to 60 pips).
  • If Market Movements is between 50.40 and 50.60, so it should close your position after 3H:15M (Around 80 pips to 120 pips).
  • If Market Movements is between 50.60 and 50.99, so it should close your position after 8H:00M (Around 140 pips to 200 pips).
Apply Formulas:
Market Movements = (1.3131 / (1.3131 + 1.2993)) * 100
Market Movements = 50.26
Note:
It should be noted that the relation between the Volatility and the Market Movements lies in:
So, let's say you did not close your position after 3H:15M, so after each 15 minutes the Volatility will be decreased "Volatility - (Volatility * 40 / 100)" if you wait more then the trend can go against you at any moment. Because just after this lap of time the probability that this Volatility decrease every 15 minutes.

Trading Recommendations:

According to previous events, the price has still been trapped between 1.32 and 1.29.
  • Buy above 1.3065 (Around 50% of Fibonacci retracement levels) with a first target of 1.3140, it might resume to 1.3210.
  • Below 1.3025 (Around 23.6% of Fibonacci retracement levels) look for further downside with 1.2975 and 1.2870 targets.


Technical Levels:

R3:1.3281
R2:1.3206
R1:1.3143
PP:1.3068
S1:1.3005
S2:1.2930
S3:1.2867


Tools of Chart:

  • It should be noted that the market was so stable and trend was also so clear (upward).
  • Range was: 138 pips (upward).
  • The value of 50% Fibonacci retracement levels is: (High + Low) / 2 = 1.3062. (The key level to confirm a bullish market).
  • Volatility is 180.30 so the market has called for a high volatile.


Observation (s):

  • Please check out the market volatility before investing, because the sight price may have already been reached and scenarios become invalidate.
  • Use historic prices to determine future prices.
  • Fibonacci retracement uses to determine accurate psychology level of support and resistance, and playing according to in this kind of period.
  • Fibonacci in a range trader (it is looks like the trend is trapping and going up or down, if you sell or buy for a long term in this period you'll go sure for losing your profit.


Warning (s):

  • Stop Loss should NEVER exceed your maximum exposure amounts.
  • Usually the market has a high volatile, if the last day had a huge volatility.
InstaForex

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis & Trade Recommendation December 20 , 2011


Technical analysis

Mohamed Samy




Recently GBP/USD witnessed breakout of the short-term bearish channel marked on the chart.
Then the pair had a congestion zone 1.5555 - 1.5464 which was broken to the upside today reaching the average movement range at 1.5630.
Reaching the average range early in the day gives an opportunity to SHORT the pair at 1.5644 to target 1.5565 with SL break of the high at 1.5650.
Level 1.5555 may constitute a good intraday support to BUY the pair at with intraday targets 50-75 pips with SL 4H closure below 1.5530.
InstaForex

Monday, December 19, 2011

AUD/USD Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For 19 - 23, December, 2011

Gerardo Porras
Forecast


The "pivot points" is a technique long applied by floor traders. The pivot points allow us to see objectively where the price in relation to how the price behaved in the past. In a nutshell is like a map that allows us to see the "feeling" of investors in the short and medium term.
The psychology behind this approach is simple. We know that for some reason, the market in previous sessions did not follow up or down at these levels. Do not know why we do not need to know. We only know the fact: the market shift in these levels.
Most importantly, this approach is that support and resistance levels are measured objectively, the price reversal above, then the odds indicate that at least those providing support or resistance levels.
The two tables provide the levels of weekly and monthly pivot. You can apply your strategy in the support or resistance levels.

_____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.0521
Weekly - R2 = 1.0368
Weekly - R1 = 1.0167
Weekly Pivot = 1.0014
Weekly - S1 = 0.9813
Weekly - S2 = 0.9660
Weekly - S3 = 0.9459
_____MONTHLY____
Monthly - R3 = 1.1581
Monthly - R2 = 1.1073
Monthly - R1 = 1.0678
Monthly Pivot = 1.0170
Monthly - S1 = 0.9775
Monthly - S2 = 0.9267
Monthly - S3 = 0.8872

Friday, December 16, 2011

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis & Trade Recommendation December 16, 2011


Technical analysis

Mohamed Samy





GBP/USD has a midterm bearish direction manifested in the direction of the yellow channel.
During Yesterday, GBP/USD was trending up inside a narrow bullish channel ( Violet).
Now the pair is testing the upper limit of the blue channel, in front of one of two scenarios:
1. The pair breaks the lower limit of the violet narrow channel trading below 1.5490 thus resuming its downtrend.
2. The pair manages to break the upper limit of the  yellow channel at 1.5550 targetting higher levels  inside the violet channel.

VIOLET CHANNEL represents Yesterday's movement.
BLUE CHANNEL represents the last 2 days' movement.
YELLOW CHANNEL represents the last 3 days' movement.
Based on the previous analysis
It's suggested to take a trade whenever Breakout of 1.5490-15550 takes place in the same direction of the break.
SL should be re-closure beyond the entry level in both scenarios.
TP should be 50-75 pips as this is an intraday trade.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/13078/?x=OUE 
InstaForex

Thursday, December 15, 2011

GBP/USD: Tight Sideway Range. 2011-12-15

Technical analysis
Mourad El Keddani

 

Pivot Point: 1.5469.


GBP/USD:
  • Resistance: 1.5525.
  • Support: 1.5400.

It should be noted that the market was not stable and trend was not also so clear (It was tight sideway range), aswell according to previous events, the price has still been trapped between 1.55 and 1.54 so it is of the wisdom to be careful at this area. Therefore first step is wait for a period of tight sideway range market before open any position. Then, it will probably that the market is going to start showing the signs of bullish market. In other words, it will be a good sign to buy above 1.54 with a first target of 1.5469 and it'll climb towards 1.5525. However, If the the pair could not break 1.5525, hence the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below 1.5530 then the level will be act really as strong resistance, for that it will a good sign to sell below 1.5530 with a first target of 1.5469 (Pivot point) and it will call for downtrend in order to continue bearish towards 1.5407 (S1).

Intraday Technical levels ((15th of December 2011)):

R3:1.5653
R2:1.5592
R1:1.5530
PP:1.5469
S1:1.5407
S2:1.5346
S3:1.5284

Definition (s):


Range I – A long-term mean reversion strategy that looks to go against strong divergence from the pair’s average value. It will typically hold trades for an extended period of time and is one of the slower moving trading strategies.
Range II– Like Breakout 2, uses sentiment as a filter for its trades. It will use a simple oscillator range trading strategy but only take the trading signals if SSI is not at extremes. It is fairly short-term in nature and will tend to trade very little during times of strong trending moves. It is likewise one of the most volatility-sensitive trading systems and will tend to do poorly during times of sharp currency moves.

Observation (s):

Please check out the market volatility before investing, because the sight price may have already been reached and scenarios become invalidate.
Stop Loss should NEVER exceed your maximum exposure amounts.
InstaForex

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

USD/CAD Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for December 14th -- 15th, 2011.

Technical analysis
Mourad El Keddani



Pivot Point: 1.0306.

Overview:
The market is going to continue to show signs of strength following at the level of 1.0040 (23.6% of Fibonacci retracement levels). Therefore the USD/CAD's resistance has broken and it was turned to support a month ago (1st of September 2011), aswell the pair has already formed a strong support at the level of 1.0040. So the market indicates a bullish opportunity on level of 1.0080 with a first target of 1.0395 and continue towards 1.0480. However, If the trend couldn't break and closure above the level of 1.0512, then it will be a downside momentum is rather convincing and the structure of the fall looks is not corrective, for that the market will indicate a bearish opportunity at 1.0512 hence it will be a good sign to sell at this level in order to continue downward towards 1.0385 on H4.

Trading Recommendations:
According to previous events, the price has still been trapped between 1.0080 and 1.0512.
  • Buy above 1.0080 with target at 1.04 then 1.048.
  • Below 1.052 look for further downside with a target of 1.038.

Technical Levels:
R3:1.0497
R2:1.0423
R1:1.0380
PP:1.0306
S1:1.0263
S2:1.0189
S3:1.0146

Observation (s):
Please check out the market volatility before investing, because the sight price may have already been reached and scenarios become invalidate.
Key level at 1.0283.
History will probably repeat itself at this level again.
InstaForex

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

GOLD Intraday Technical analysis 2011-12-13


Technical analysis

Albert Fitoussi




the gold is currently testing the intermediate support of its medium term bullish channel in 1650 suggesting a rebound. However a break of these levels would entail a return to the lower limit of this one to 1630.
According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity on the levels of 1650 with a 1st objective of 1660, then 1665. A break in 1648 would invalidate this scenario.
http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/45786/?x=OUE
InstaForex

Monday, December 12, 2011

GOLD Intraday Technical analysis 2011-12-12


Technical analysis

Albert Fitoussi




The gold is currently testing the lower limit of its medium term bearish channel in 1684 suggesting a rebound. However a break of these levels would entail a bearish channel more violent.
According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity on the levels of 1684 with a 1st objective of 1695, then 1702. A break in 1681 would invalidate this scenario.

http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/45676/?x=OUE
InstaForex

Friday, December 9, 2011

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for December 9, 2011

Wave analysis
Roman Molodiashin



GBP/JPY is developing corrective wave B (colored light green in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 119.31. Within this wave there are A and B waves (colored royal blue in the chart) of smaller degree, with subwave B still developing from 122.64. The targets below the current price are Fibonacci retracements of 119.31-122.64, and expansions off 122.64-120.90-122.15, 122.15-120.86-121.58.
Supports:
- 120.78 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 120.58 = .618 retracement
- 120.41 = objective point (OP)
- 120.29 = OP
- 119.49 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down from 122.64 - this wave is not developed yet, so no resistances are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is now up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (15-30 pips below the current prices).
InstaForex

Thursday, December 8, 2011

EUR/JPY Intraday Technical analysis 2011-12-08


Technical analysis

Albert Fitoussi




The spot rate approach to the lower limit of its medium term bullish channel in 103.80 suggesting a rebound. However a break of these levels would entail a bearish channel.
According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity on the levels of 103.80 with a 1st objective of 104.50, then 104.80. A break in 103.60 would invalidate this scenario.
http://instaforex.com/forex_analysis/45482/?x=OUE
InstaForex