EUR/USD Wave Analysis for August 13,2012

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EUR/USD Elliott Wave
Last week the EUR/USD pair was trading in downward move, developing corrective 2 wave (coloured blue) of the bigger (3) wave (coloured green). During the Friday's European and early New York sessions we could observe a strong descending movement from 1.2305 towards the 1.2240 level and we can consider this move as the end of the 2 wave (coloured green). Therefore, during the second half of the NY session, the EUR/USD retraced back to the 1.2315 (new daily high). At the moment this major pair is trading around 1.2280 level and we are expecting to see the price around 1.2750 level this week. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (1.2133-1.2441-1.2259) with Take Profit 1 at 1.2558 (100% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 1.2754 (161.8% of wave 1) To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation point at 1.2133 as Stop Loss.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.2207 (S2) 1.2236 (S1) 1.2253 (PP) 1.2282 (R1) 1.2311 (R2) 1.2328 (R3) 1.2357
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 1.2300 with Stop Loss 1.2133, Take Profit 1 1.2558 and Take Profit 2 1.2558 are recommended.
Nicola Delic is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

EUR/USD Wave Analysis for August 9,2012

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EUR/USD Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis, the EUR/USD pair was trading in a downward move developing corrective wave A (coloured purple) of the bigger 2 wave (coloured blue). Yesterday during the Asian and European sessions we could observe a descending movement from 1.2400 towards the 1.2325 level and we can consider this move as the end of the A wave. Therefore, during yesterday's New York session and today ‘s Asian session this major pair did not manage to hold this level and the price started pushing higher when the development of the B wave (coloured purple) started. At the moment the EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.2345 level and we are expecting to see the price around 1.2260 level today. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave C retraces 100% of the wave A, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (1.2441-1.2326-1.2385) with Take Profit at 1.2261 (100% of wave A). To reduce the risk, we can use resistance at 1.2400 as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor the EU ECB Monthly Bulletin, Italian Trade Balance and U.S. Trade Balance, Unemployment Claims data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.2288 (S2) 1.2317 (S1) 1.2335 (PP) 1.2364 (R1) 1.2393 (R2) 1.2411 (R3) 1.2440
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at level 1.2340 with Stop Loss 1.2400 and Take Profit 1.2261 are recommended.
Nicola Delic is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels for August 8, 2012

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TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2445.
Strong Resistance: 1.2438.
Original Resistance: 1.2426.
Inner Sell Area: 1.2414.
Target Inner Area: 1.2385.
Inner Buy Area: 1.2355.
Original Support: 1.2344.
Strong Support: 1.2331.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.2324.

DESCRIPTION:

Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.2344 and 1.2426 and is accompanied by strong support at 1.2331 and by 1.2438 as strong resistance.
If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below a 1.2324-level today, then this will indicate considerable bearish strength, while if EUR/USD manages to break out and close above a 1.2445-level, then this will denote high bullish strength. Alternatively, you can trade in a way to open a BUY position at the level of 1.2355- and at 1.2414 – a SELL position, in this case both targets should be located at the level of 1.2385.

Best regards,
Arief Makmur is taking part in the "Analyst of the Year" award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

Gold Is Holding Well. Bulls Targetting 1650

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Technical Outlook and Chart Setup:
As depicted above, prices are completely out of consolidation after the test. We expect the rally to accelerate and gain momentum now. 1580 remains as strong support and bulls are eyeing the resistance levels at 1650 and 1670 immediately. Furthermore, the extensions are up to 1700 and above. Currently, the metal is subdued into a small range, but believe it or not, the breakout is expected anytime and will be rather sharp. Preparing for the next rally now, would be a good trading strategy.
Trading Recommendations:
Hold long positions; buy on dips for fresh longs. Stop below 1550 and target 1650, 1670 and 1700.

EUR/JPY Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-08-06

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Following the increase seen on Friday, the spot rate has tested the upper limit of its medium term bullish channel at 97.80. After that it demonstrated a decline. A return to the intermediate support of its channel to 96.10 is expected. Moreover this level represents a retracement of 62% of the increase between August 02th and August 05th.
Technical indicators provide sell signals supporting the assumption of a decline to its intermediate support. However, a break of these levels would lead to acceleration to the lower limit of its channel to 95.10. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong increase of these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term.
We recommend buying part of the positions on the level of 96.10. If the spot rate breaks its support level, we will buy the other part at the level of 95.10. Put a stop loss on the level of 94.80.

GOLD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-08-02

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Gold is currently testing the intermediate support of its medium term bearish channel at 1 594 suggesting a rebound. However, a breakthrough this level will trigger a decline to the lower limit 1 540.
Technical indicators do not provide clears signals but until the support is not broken, the assumption of a rebound is most likely. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement.
According to previous events, the market will provide a bullish opportunity at the level of 1 594 with the 1st objective at 1 605 and then at 1 610. A breakthrough 1 591 will alter this scenario.

USD/CHF Wave Analysis for August 1 - 2012

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USD/CHF Elliott Wave
Yesterday the USD/CHF pair was trading in a downward move developing corrective wave B (coloured blue) of the bigger wave (2) (coloured green). During the European and New York trading sessions we could observe descending movement from 0.9805 towards the 0.9740 where this major pair found support and price started pushing higher at the end of NY session. Today the USD/CHF pair broke yesterday’s low at 09740 and price reached new 3 days low at 0.9735 level. We can consider this move as the end of the B wave (coloured blur) and we can expect to see price around 0.9850 today. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave C retraces 100% of the wave A, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (0.9695-0.9823-0.9735) with Take Profit at 0.9856 (100% of wave A). Resistance at 0.9700 can be used as Stop Loss.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 0.9705 (S2) 0.9730 (S1) 0.9745 (PP) 0.9769 (R1) 0.9794 (R2) 0.9809 (R3) 0.9833
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 0.9775 with Stop Loss 0.9700 and Take Profit 0.9856 are recommended.